US Unemployment Rate moves above 8%
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 9th March 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) traded with the expected large range due to the Nonfarm Payroll release. The figure for February at -651K was at expectations but the Unemployment Rate surged to 8.1% the highest rate in 30 years. Early Dollar weakness seen in Europe was reversed as the Employment figures caused risk aversion to spike higher and safe haven buying. Stocks tested 6500 but ended the session sharply higher. Crude Oil closed up $1.91 ending the New York session at $45.52 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 5 points or -0.44% whilst the Dow Jones fell 32 points or 0.49%.
·The Euro (EUR) Rumors of a terrible Non Farm number saw the Euro surge from 1.2560 to 1.2700 in Europe. New stock market lows saw the Euro fall off the 1.2700 level. Supporting the Euro was the large rally in Oil on speculation OPEC will cut at their next meeting. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2539 and a high of 1.2755 before closing the day at 1.2661. Looking ahead, March Sentix is forecast at -38 vs. -36 previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) was extremely volatile with USD weakness and slumping stocks sending the pair back under 97 before a late Equity rally and saw both the USD/JPY and crosses ending higher. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 96.58 and a high of 98.50 before closing the day around 97.90 in the New York session. Looking ahead, January Current Account previously at -92.1%.
·The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro higher but fell off the 1.4300 level to ending 1.41 as the BOE plan to Quantitative Ease left sentiment fragile at best. February PPI jumped 0.6% vs. 0.1% forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4078 and a high of 1.4306 before closing the day at 1.4094 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) commodities rallying across the board on USD weakness did little to buoy the AUD held down by fresh risk aversion after the US Unemployment data. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6370 and a high of 0.6473 before closing the US session at 0.6390.
·Gold (XAU) kept to a relatively tight range with USD weakness helping the pair to trade above $940 but profit taking into the weekend capped any further gains. Overall trading with a low of USD$930 and high of USD$945 before ending the New York session at USD$939 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2457 |
1.2533 |
1.2680 |
1.2754 |
1.2811 |
|
USD/JPY |
96.36 |
96.58 |
98.15 |
99.68 |
100.57 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3957 |
1.4038 |
1.4130 |
1.4385 |
1.4608 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6249 |
0.6281 |
0.6420 |
0.6528 |
0.6555 |
|
XAU/USD |
874.00 |
900.00 |
936.00 |
958.00 |
963.00 |
·Euro – 1.2680
Initial support at 1.2533 (Mar 6 low) followed by 1.2457 (Mar 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2754 (Mar 6 low) at followed by 1.2811 (Feb 26 high)
·Yen – 98.15
Initial support is located at 96.58 (Mar 6 low) followed by 96.36 (Feb 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.86 (Mar 5 high) followed by 100.57 (Nov 4 high).
·Pound – 1.4130
Initial support at 1.4038 (Mar 5 low) followed by 1.3957 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4385 (Feb 26 high) followed by 1.4608 (Feb 25 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6420
Initial support at 0.6281 (Mar 3 low) followed by the 0.6249 (Feb 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6528 (Mar 4 high) followed by 0.6555 (Feb 25 high).
·Gold – 936
Initial support at 900 (Mar 4 low) followed by 891 (Feb 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 958 (Mar 2 high) followed by 963 (Feb 27 high).
