FOMC Minutes points to Further Pain
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 9th April (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) received support as the Nikkei came under pressure during the Asian session before giving up gains as US stocks rallied from the opening bell. The FOMC minutes took some shine off the stock rally with the FED downgrading GDP projections for the 2009 and 2010. Crude Oil closed down $0.23 ending the New York session at $49.38 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 29 points or 1.86% whilst the Dow Jones was down 47 points or 0.61%. Looking ahead, Trade Balance (Feb) forecast at -36.4Bn vs. -36Bn previously.
·The Euro (EUR) rebounded from week lows under 1.3200 as German Trade Balance beat expectations and stocks reversed direction. German Trade Balance (Feb) forecast at 7.5Bn came in at 8.7Bn. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3149 and a high of 1.3308 before closing at 1.3250. Looking ahead, Industrial Output (Feb) forecast at -3.1% vs. -7.5%. Also released, German CPI (March) forecast at -0.1% vs. 0.6% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) broke below 100 on heavy cross selling especially in the EUR/JPY forcing the USD/JPY lower. Japan has announced a new stimulus package reportedly to the tune of 37 trillion Yen. Future movement will be directed by stock market direction with the Yen tracking. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 99.33 and a high of 100.86 before closing the day around 99.80 in the New York session. UPDATE Core Machinery Orders m/m at +1.4% vs. -6.8% forecast.
·The Sterling (GBP) fell in sympathy with Euro finding support below 1.4700 but struggling to make gains. UK Q1 GDP is forecast at -1.5% but the market is focusing on the BOE decision today with any comments about quantitative easing. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4638 and a high of 1.4745 before closing the day at 1.4705 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE rate announcement forecast to remain at 0.5%. Also released, PPI (Mar) forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.1% m/m previously. Feb Trade Balance is forecast at -7.58Bn vs. -7.74Bn previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell as sentiment soured in Asia but the market couldn’t break 0.7000 and rebounded to above 0.7100 in the US session. Focus turns to today’s Unemployment data for future direction. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7036 and a high of 0.7127 before closing the US session at 0.7080. Looking ahead, Unemployment (Mar) forecast at -25K vs. 1.8K previously with an Unemployment rate of 5.4% vs. 5.2% previously.
·Gold (XAU) kept in a quiet tight range although found support in market uncertainty. Overall trading with a low of USD$879 and high of USD$889 before ending the New York session at USD$882 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3072 |
1.3113 |
1.3250 |
1.3420 |
1.3592 |
|
USD/JPY |
98.23 |
99.32 |
99.75 |
101.44 |
102.41 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4450 |
1.4584 |
1.4680 |
1.4986 |
1.5154 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6857 |
0.6976 |
0.7080 |
0.7169 |
0.7229 |
|
XAU/USD |
852.00 |
865.00 |
880.00 |
909.00 |
933.00 |
·Euro – 1.3250
Initial support at 1.3113 (Mar 30 low) followed by 1.3072 (Former resistance). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3420 (April 7 high) at followed by 1.3592 (Mar 27 high)
·Yen – 99.75
Initial support is located at 99.32 (Apr 8 low) followed by 98.23 (Apr 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 101.44 (Apr 6 high) followed by 102.41 (Oct 20 high).
·Pound – 1.4680
Initial support at 1.4584 (Apr 7 low) followed by 1.4450 (Apr 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4986 (Feb 9 high) followed by 1.5154 (Jan 12 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.7080
Initial support at 0.6976 (Apr 2 low) followed by the 0.6857 (Apr 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7169 (Apr 7 high) followed by 0.7229 (Apr 3 high).
·Gold – 880
Initial support at 865 (Apr 6 low) followed by 852 (Jan 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 909 (Apr 1 high) followed by 933 (Mar 26 high).
