No Surprises from ECB, BOE
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 9th April (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) US stocks markets once again bucked the trend of the rest of globe to turn risk appetite back on and weaken the Dollar from the day highs seen in Europe. Weekly Jobless Claims jumped +16k to 460k vs. 435k forecast. In US stocks, DJIA +29 points closing at 10927, S& P +4 points closing at 1186 and NASDAQ +5 points closing at 2436. Looking ahead, February Wholesale Trade forecast at 0.5% vs. 1.2% previously.
The Euro (EUR) fell to a fresh 2 week lows under 1.3300 in Early Europe as the Greece bond yields blowed out to 7.4% and risk aversion pushed EUR/JPY lower. The ECB held at 1.0% and some positive comments from President Trichet led to a short covering rally. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3281 and a high of 1.3385 before closing at 1.3370. Looking ahead, February Trade Balance forecast at 11.2bn vs. 8.7bn previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the strength continued for Asia and Europe as the market pushed USD/JPY below Y93 and EUR/JPY below Y124. February Machine Orders -5.4% vs. 3.7% forecast. The Situation reversed in the US session however as GBP/JPY led the crosses higher in a ‘risk on’ environment. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 92.82 and a high of 93.55 before closing the day around 93.40 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) tested the support at 1.5140 as the market responded to new polls suggesting a hung parliament and increasing difficult medium term government debt problem. Buyers returned at the bottom however with the BOE remaining at 0.5% and likely waiting for after the election for their next move. February Manufacturing Production increased 1.3% vs. 0.7% forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5139 and a high of 1.5307 before closing the day at 1.570 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March PPI output Prices forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell with the Euro and Pound in Early Europe but was once again well supported on dips and rallied in the US session to retest 0.9300 for the second successive day. March Unemployment was at 19.6K vs. 20K forecast. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9222 and a high of 0.9297 before closing the US session at 0.9285.
Oil & Gold (XAU) was well support on dips and closed above $1150 as the bulls remained in control. Overall trading with a low of USD$1143 and high of USD$1154 before ending the New York session at USD$1151 an ounce. Crude Oil fell a little more but was still held above the key $85 level. WTI Oil Closed -$0.49 at $85.39 a barrel.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3247 |
1.3268 |
1.3360 |
1.3408 |
1.3497 |
|
USD/JPY |
92.25 |
92.76 |
93.50 |
94.27 |
94.79 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5044 |
1.5130 |
1.5280 |
1.5319 |
1.5382 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9131 |
0.9166 |
0.9285 |
0.9298 |
0.9328 |
|
XAU/USD |
1122.00 |
1132 |
1151.00 |
1153 |
1161.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
84.50 |
85 |
85.80 |
86 |
88.00 |
Euro – 1.3360
Initial support at 1.3268 (Mar 26) followed by 1.3247 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3408 (April 7 high) followed by 1.3497 (Apr 6 high)
Yen – 93.50
Initial support is located at 92.76 (Mar 31 low) followed by 92.25 (0.382 of 88.14-94.79). Initial resistance is now at 94.27 (Apr 7 high) followed by 94.79 (Apr 5 High).
Pound – 1.5280
Initial support at 1.5130 (Apr 6 low) followed by 1.5044 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5319 (Apr 5 high) followed by 1.5382 (Mar 31 low).
Australian Dollar – 0.9285
Initial support at 0.9166 (Apr 6 low) followed by the 0.9131 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9298 (Apr 7 high) followed by 0.9328 (Jan 14 high).
Gold – 1151
Initial support at 1132 (Apr 7 low) followed by 1122 (Apr 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 1153 (April 7 high) followed by 1161 (Jan 11 high).
Oil – 85.80
Initial support at 85.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 84.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 86.00 (March high) followed by 88.00 (Intraday Resistance).
