Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 09/06/2010

Gold Set New Record Above $1250

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 9^th June (00:30 GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) in another volatile day of trading the market roller coaster continued with a rally in Asia sold off in Europe but finished back at day highs in the US. Bernanke helped markets in Asia with positive comments the the US recovery was continuing. In US stocks, DJIA +123 points closing at 9939, S&amp P +11 points closing at 1062 and NASDAQ -3 points closing at 2170. Looking ahead, Bernanke Speaks and Crude Oil inventories released forecast at -1.1% vs. -1.9% previously

The Euro (EUR) tested 1.19 as sentiment soured in Europe but when this held the pair rallied sharply to test the now key 1.2000 level. Resistance held true and the pair slipped back into a tight range. EUR/GBP lifted off previous lows on Pound weakness. German Trade Balance missed forecast at 13.1bn vs. 14bn expected.EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1901 and a high of 1.2010 before closing at 1.1950.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) fell below Y91 at the height of the market weakness in Europe on heavy GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY selling but was able to recover and remain in more familiar ranges in the mid Y91.50 zone. April Leading Indicators dropped -0.2% vs. 4.4% previously. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.80 and a high of 91.95 before closing the day around 91.40 in the New York session. UPDATE April Machine Orders at 4% vs. 1.2% previously.

The Sterling (GBP) was the worst performing currency as Fitch warned the markets that the UK fiscal position was challenging and required aggressive austerity measures. Cable broke below 1.4400 and was only saved by the late Dow Rally which prompted a return above the figure. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4344 and a high of 1.4532 before closing the day at 1.4440 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April Trade Balance forecast at -7bn vs. 7.52bn previously.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) staged a solid recovery as the risk currency took advantage of stronger stocks to outperform the rest of the market and end close to 0.8300 resistance. 0.8000 continues to be a key target for the bears but the day to day movement of the stock markets are trumping attempts to test the key psychological level. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8121 and a high of 0.8289 before closing the US session at 0.8240. Update June Consumer Sentiment -5.7%.

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) Gold caught the markets focus with a break higher to fresh record highs above $1250. The market then took profit induced by the US stock bounce. Overall trading with a low of USD$1232 and high of USD$1252 before ending the New York session at USD$1238 an ounce. Oil continued to rally up $0.55 as the gulf spill prompted supply concerns. WTI Oil Closed +$0.55 at $71.99 a barrel.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.1950

Initial support at 1.1827 (March 2006 low) followed by 1.1640 (Nov 2005 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2453 (May 28 high) followed by 1.2587 (May 24 high)

Yen – 91.50

Initial support is located at 90.54 (June 1 low) followed by 89.81 (May 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.97 (May 18 low) followed by 93.64 (May 13 high).

Pound – 1.4430

Initial support at 1.4393 (Jun 7 low) followed by 1.4366 (May 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4771 (June 2 high) followed by 1.4878 (50% 0f 1.5544-1.4231).

Australian Dollar – 0.8245

Initial support at 0.8067 (May 25 low) followed by the 0.8000 (Big Figure). Initial resistance is now at 0. 8552 (May 28 low) followed by 0.8579 (Feb 5 low).

Gold – 1236

Initial support at 1202 (May 28 low) followed by 1185 (May 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 1250 (May 14 high) followed by 1261 (1123.90 plus 1.618 of 1085.3-1170.1).

Oil – 72.40

Initial support at 70.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 69.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 72.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 75.00 (Intraday Resistance).