Euro on the bounce, Greece Bailout?
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 10th February (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) came under pressure as recent gains were wound back on rumors of EU action on Greece. Stocks rallied and the EURO led the majors higher against the Dollar. In US stocks DJIA +150 points closing at 10058, S& P +13 points closing at 1070 and NASDAQ +24 points closing at 2150. Looking ahead, December Trade Balance is forecast at -36bn vs. -36.4bn previously.
The Euro (EUR) began to rally in Asia as news circulated that Trichet was leaving Australia early to return home for a EU council meeting. Rumors began to circulate of imminent rescue packages for Greece and this sent global stocks rallying. Some clarification was seen from the German MoF says “Moves on Greece would aim to calm markets, all other reports on Greek aid speculation”. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3649 and a high of 1.3841 before closing at 1.3790.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was weak on the crosses as risk appetite induced a frenzy of short covering with EUR/JPY especially well bid pushing through to Y124 on the Greece Bailout speculation. AUD/JPY recovered over 2% as the commodity currency outperformed. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.20 and a high of 89.97 before closing the day around 89.80 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) shrugged off weak Trade numbers to rally with the rest of the market against the USD and YEN. December Trade Balance was at -7.3bn vs. -6.6bn previously. EUR/GBP broke above 0.8800 on Euro strength but failed to close above the Key level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5550 and a high of 1.5751 before closing the day at 1.5700 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BOE Inflation Report.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) enjoyed a solid bounce as the risk sensitive currency was bought up from 4 month lows and commodities rallied across the board. AUD/NZD remain well supported above 1.2600 as the market continues to digest the dovish outlook for the RBNZ relative to the RBA. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8631 and a high of 0.8800 before closing the US session at 0.8775. Looking ahead, December Home Loans forecast at -4.8% vs. -5.6% previously.
Oil & Gold (XAU) bounced up to resistance at $1080 on USD weakness. Overall trading with a low of USD$1062 and high of USD$1083 before ending the New York session at USD$1077 an ounce. Oil was well supported on Greece bailout speculation. Crude Oil was down +$1.93 ending the New York session at $73.80.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3586 |
1.3622 |
1.3780 |
1.3820 |
1.3965 |
|
USD/JPY |
88.83 |
89.15 |
89.80 |
89.88 |
90.55 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5450 |
1.5536 |
1.5690 |
1.5776 |
1.5919 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8545 |
0.8579 |
0.8770 |
0.8830 |
0.8928 |
|
XAU/USD |
1035.00 |
1041 |
1078.00 |
1073 |
1111.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
70.00 |
72.50 |
73.40 |
74.50 |
75.00 |
Euro – 1.3780
Initial support at 1.3622 (Feb 8 low) followed by 1.3586 (Feb 5 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3820 (0.236 of 1.4579-1.3586) followed by 1.3965 (0.382 of 1.4579-1.3586)
Yen – 89.80
Initial support is located at 89.15 (Feb 8 low) followed by 88.83 (Feb 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 89.88 (Feb 5 high) followed by 90.55 (0.382 of 93.77-88.56).
Pound – 1.5690
Initial support at 1.5536 (Feb 8 low) followed by 1.5450 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5776 (Feb 5 high) followed by 1.5919 (Feb 4 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8770
Initial support at 0.8579 (Feb 4 low) followed by the 0.8545 (Sept 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8830 (Feb 4 high) followed by 0.8928 (Feb 2 high).
Gold – 1078
Initial support at 1041 (Nov 2 low) followed by 1035 (Oct 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 1100 (Big Figure) followed by 1111 (Feb 4 high).
Oil – 73.40
Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 70.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 74.50 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 75.00 (Intraday Resistance).
