CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 10th June (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) resumed weakening after a brief period of strengthening as speculation of future rate hikes in the US were dampened. In a survey of the major US bond traders all 16/16 thought the US would not raise rates this year. USD/JPY was lower even as stocks rallied on banking and mining stocks. Oil broke and closed above $70 a barrel. Crude Oil closed up $1.92 to finish the day at $70.01. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 17 points or 0.96% and the Dow Jones was down 1 points or -0.02%. Looking ahead, April Trade Balance forecast at -29BN vs. -28Bn previously.
The Euro (EUR) regained above 1.4000 after Goldman Sachs put out a buy recommendation and the USD weakened after traders pared back bets of the US Fed raising rates this year. German Industrial Production was down -1.9% in April vs. 0.0% forecast. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4004 and a high of 1.3804 before closing at 1.3910. Looking ahead, May German CPI is forecast at -0.1%.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against the USD as Yields dropped on the above news. Support at 98 gave weigh but crosses continued to provide support on dips so the downside may be limited while risk appetite is strong. Core Machinery Orders fell -5.4% vs. 0.1% forecast. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.24 and a high of 98.57 before closing the day around 97.40 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) continued the rally that began yesterday on route back above 1.6300 towards year highs above 1.66. Better than expected RICS house price balance helped propel the pair with gains above 1% for the day. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5985 and a high of 1.6365 before closing the day at 1.6330 in the New York session. Industrial Output is forecast at -0.1% vs. 0.0%. Also released, April Trade balance is forecast at -6.4Bn vs. -6.59Bn.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) regained 0.8000 as USD weakened and commodities surged. The major topside target at year highs of 0.8260 could come under threat as June consumer confidence increased the most on record up 12%. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7851 and a high of 0.8046 before closing the US session at 0.8015. Looking ahead, Australian June Unemployment is forecast at -30k vs. +27.2K previously.
Gold (XAU) couldn’t rally on the USD weakness with improving risk sentiment and inflation pressures yet to materialize. Overall trading with a low of USD$942 and high of USD$960 before ending the New York session at USD$953 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3728 |
1.3793 |
1.4050 |
1.4267 |
1.4364 |
|
USD/JPY |
95.33 |
96.52 |
97.45 |
99.74 |
100.73 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5450 |
1.5757 |
1.6300 |
1.6435 |
1.6662 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.7703 |
0.7745 |
0.8000 |
0.8123 |
0.8263 |
|
XAU/USD |
936.00 |
941.00 |
956.00 |
990.00 |
1006.00 |
Euro – 1.4050
Initial support at 1.3793 (May 28 low) followed by 1.3728 (May 21 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4267 (Jun 5 high) followed by 1.4364 (Dec 29 high)
Yen – 97.45
Initial support is located at 96.52 (Jun 5 low) followed by 95.33 (Jun 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.74 (May 7 high) followed by 100.73 (April 13 high).
Pound – 1.6300
Initial support at 1.5757 (May 22 low) followed by 1.5450 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6435 (Jun 4 high) followed by 1.6662 (Jun 3 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8015
Initial support at 0.7745 (May 28 low) followed by the 0.7703 (May 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8123 (Jun 5 high) followed by 0.8263 (Jun 3 high).
Gold – 956
Initial support at 941 (May 26 low) followed by 936 (May 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 990 (Jun 3 high) followed by 1006 (Feb 20 high).
