Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 12/02/2009

Markets stabilize after Tuesday’s sell off

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 12th February 2009 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market kept to a tight range with some profit taking leaving the USD relatively unchanged against most of the majors. December Trade Balance improved to -39.9bn vs. -41.6bn previously. Late in the day news emerged of a deal reached to resolve differences between the House and Senate versions of the stimulus bill. Crude Oil closed down -$1.61 ending the New York session at $35.94 per barrel. In US share markets, the Dow Jones gained 50 points or -0.64% and the NASDAQ gained 6 or -0.38%. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless claims are forecast at 610K vs. 626K previously. January Retail Sales are forecast -0.8% vs. -2.7% previously.

·The Euro (EUR) a relief rally in Asia saw the pair test 1.3000 with the failure there sending the pair back to the lower end of the range at 1.2840. January CPI was confirmed at -0.5%. EUR/GBP was a major gainer during the day rallying up to test 0.9000 before settling just below this key pivot level. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2835 and a high of 1.2998 before closing the day at 1.2900. Looking ahead, December Industrial Production is forecast at -2.1% vs. -1.6% previously. Also ECB President Trichet Speaks.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) gave up some of the substantial gains seen on Tuesday as stocks retraced some losses and profit taking pushed the USD/JPY back above 90 after testing the Key level. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 87.72 and a high of 90.75 before closing the day around 90.25 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Corporate Goods Price are forecast to drop -0.6% vs. -1.2%.

·The Sterling (GBP) continued to pull back as heavy EUR/GBP buying hurt demand. Unemployment was slightly better than expected at 73.8K vs. 90 forecast. Governor King spoke about UK Inflation and expects a weak Pound to help with demand as England is mired in a deep recession. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4319 and a high of 1.4563 before closing the day at 1.4400 in the New York session.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) kept to a tight range recovering early to test 0.6600 before a second wave of selling saw support tested at 0.6480-0.6500. The market is finding support from a large rally in Gold overnight but risk aversion is capping gains in the short term. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6483 and a high of 0.6601 before closing the US session at 0.6550. Looking ahead, January Employment is forecast at -20.5K vs. -1.2K previously. The Unemployment Rate is seen rising to 4.7% vs. 4.5% previously. UPDATE +1.2K Jobs and Unemployment Rate 4.8% in January much better than forecasts.

·Gold (XAU) broke higher past resistance at $930 an ounce as investors flooded into the precious metal. Overall trading with a low of USD$911 and high of USD$947 before ending the New York session at USD$937 an ounce.

·Euro – 1.2905

Initial support at 1.2810 (Feb 10 low) followed by 1.2748 (Feb 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3093 (Feb 9 high) at followed by 1.3179 (Jan 29 high)

·Yen – 90.40

Initial support is located at 89.22 (Feb 5 low) followed by 88.60 (Feb 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.66 (Feb 10 high) followed by 92.42 (Feb 9 high).

·Pound – 1.4400

Initial support at 1.4317 (Feb 11 low) followed by 1.4155 (Feb 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4986 (Feb 9 high) followed by 1.5181 (Jan 12 high).

·Australian Dollar – 0.6555

Initial support at 0.6476 (Feb 6 low) followed by the 0.6355 (Feb 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6799 (Feb 10 high) followed by 0.6849 (Feb9 high).

·Gold – 939

Initial support at 889 (Feb 3 low) followed by 874 (Jan 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 947 (Feb 11 high) followed by 950 (Key level).