EU fails to help EURO
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 12th February (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with ‘risk on’ the dollar was under pressure across the board with the notable exception of the Euro. Helping sentiment improve and stocks rally was Weekly Jobless Claims at 440k vs. 483k. In US stocks DJIA +105 points closing at 10144, S& P +10 points closing at 1078 and NASDAQ +29 points closing at 2177. Looking ahead, January retail Sales are forecast at 0.3% vs. -0.3% previously. UoM Consumer Confidence forecast at 75 vs. 74.4 previously.
The Euro (EUR) lack of details in the EU pledge to help Greece with it’s debt problems saw the recent rebond in the Euro unwound aggressively back to 1.3600 supports. Weakness was across the board with EUR/GBP and EUR/AUD both falling heavily. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3594 and a high of 1.3802 before closing at 1.3690. Looking ahead, Q4 GDP is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.4% previously. December Industrial Production is forecast at 0.2% vs. 1.0%.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was mixed with USD/JPY trading above Y90 in the Asian session before being sold back on heavy EUR/JPY losses. AUD/JPY was the main mover on the topside as Aussie Jobs data inspired risk takers to enter the market. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 89.56 and a high of 90.16 before closing the day around 89.75 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) early selling in Europe was reversed as stock markets rallied and EUR/GBP weakness supported the Pound. The rally saw topside resistance at 1.5700 tested once again to finish on a stronger footing than recently. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5558 and a high of 1.5720 before closing the day at 1.5690 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) staged a major rally throughout the day on amazing January Jobs data of +52k vs. +15k Forecast and a drop of the Unemployment rate to 5.3% vs. 5.6% forecast. AUD/JPY soared to test the key Y80 but lack of support from the other majors limited further gains. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8764 and a high of 0.8923 before closing the US session at 0.8990.
Oil & Gold (XAU) government debt worries around the world added to the medium term gold outlook helping break resistance at $1080. Overall trading with a low of USD$1071 and high of USD$1098 before ending the New York session at USD$1094 an ounce. Oil rallied with US stocks. Crude Oil was up +$0.75 ending the New York session at $75.27.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3622 |
1.3677 |
1.3690 |
1.3813 |
1.3839 |
|
USD/JPY |
88.83 |
89.15 |
89.75 |
90.55 |
91.08 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5450 |
1.5536 |
1.5700 |
1.5765 |
1.5888 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8615 |
0.8710 |
0.8900 |
0.8928 |
0.8962 |
|
XAU/USD |
1044.00 |
1061 |
1094.00 |
1103 |
1110.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
72.50 |
75.00 |
75.30 |
77.00 |
78.00 |
Euro – 1.3690
Initial support at 1.3677 (Feb 10 low) followed by 1.3622 (Feb 8 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3813 (Feb 10 high) followed by 1.3839 (Feb 9 high)
Yen – 89.75
Initial support is located at 89.15 (Feb 8 low) followed by 88.83 (Feb 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.55 (0.382 of 93.77-88.56) followed by 91.08 (Feb 4 high).
Pound – 1.5700
Initial support at 1.5536 (Feb 8 low) followed by 1.5450 (Feb 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5776 (Feb 5 high) followed by 1.5888 (0.382 of 1.6458-1.5536).
Australian Dollar – 0.8900
Initial support at 0.8710 (Feb 10 low) followed by the 0.8615 (Feb 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8928 (Feb 2 high) followed by 0.8962 (Jan 29 high).
Gold – 1094
Initial support at 1061 (Feb 8 low) followed by 1044 (Feb 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1103 (0.500 of 1161.80-1044.85) followed by 1110 (Former Support).
Oil – 75.30
Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 72.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 77.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Resistance).
