Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 12/03/2008

Fed announce $200 Billion cash injection to boost credit markets, as share markets rally

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 12 MARCH 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed once again versus a number of majors in a highly eventful trading day with the Federal Reserve announcement it will inject liquidity into the financial system, easing the market’s anxiety over a deepening credit crisis and US recession. The Fed said it will hold auctions to lend as much as $200 billion in Treasuries and increase swap lines with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. Central banks coordinating actions to address the liquidity issue in the market is helping to stabilize the markets and aiding the US dollar recovery. Much of the sentiment surrounding the dollar rebound circled trimmed bets that the Fed would cut by 75 basis points. In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ was up by 86.42 points (3.98%) whilst the Dow Jones was also up by 416.66 points (3.55%). Crude oil continued to set new highs of US$109.72 a barrel, before ending the day higher by US$0.85 at US$108.75.

·The Euro (EUR) traded at a record high before giving up much of its gains on the Fed announcement, as traders speculated the steps will help ease a credit crisis that is threatening to tip the U.S. economy into a recession. The single currency had traded at a record high earlier after an industry report showed investor confidence in Germany unexpectedly improved this month, adding to evidence Europe’s largest economy may weather a U.S. slowdown. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.5283 and a high of 1.5495 before closing the day at 1.5315 in the New York session. EU Industrial Production is expected to come in at 0.3% for the month of January, previous at -0.2%

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) rose the most in six months against the yen after the Federal Reserve said it will lend up to $200 billion of Treasuries to financial institutions in exchange for debt that includes mortgage-backed securities. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 101.43 and a high of 103.54 before closing the day at 103.40

·The Sterling (GBP) fell from three-month highs after a UK house price measure fell to its lowest since the market crashed in 1990, supporting the case for further interest rate cuts. In other news this morning, separate data from the British Retail Consortium showed retail sales growing at a modest pace last month, as consumer spending tightened, adding more pressure to the British pound. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9997 and a high of 2.0210 before closing at 2.0074 in the New York session.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) was the one currency to benefit from the Fed cash injection as rebounding stocks prompted a return to high yielder’s. Overall AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9190 and a high of 0.9270 before closing the day at 0.9260.

·The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gained against the greenback supported by record oil prices, strong domestic data, and a coordinated move by central banks to help ease credit strains. The Bank of Canada said it was ready to pump CAD $4 billion into the market and domestic data showed Canada’s trade surplus widened in January on a surge in exports. Overall the USDCAD traded with a low of 0.9893 and a high of 0.9973

·Gold (XAU) rose after oil surged to a record, boosting the appeal of the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. XAU traded with a low of 965.05 and a high of 985.30

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.5345

Initial support at 1.5313 (Mar 10 low) followed by 1.5262 (Mar 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5463 (Mar 7 high) followed by 1.5500 (1.4311 plus 0.618 of 1.3361 to 1.4967).

·Yen – 101.50

Initial support is located at 101.42 (Mar 7 low) followed by 101.26 (Nov 1999 low). Initial resistance is now at 103.24 (Mar 7 high) followed by 104.19 (Jan 23 high)

·Pound – 2.0060

Initial support at 1.9960 (Jan 30 high) followed by 1.9896 (Mar 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 2.0221 (Mar 7 high) followed by 2.0250 (50% retracement of the 2.1161 – 1.9338)

·Australian Dollar – 0.9290

Initial support a 0.9160 (Mar 10 low) followed by 0.9122 (38.2% retracement of the 0.8513 to 0.9499 advance). Initial resistance is now at 0.9421 (Mar 3 high) followed by 0.9499 (Feb 28 high)

·Gold – 972.90

Initial support at 957.20 (Mar 4 low) followed by 949.00 (Feb 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 992.75 (Mar 5 high) followed by 1000.00 (Round Number)