USD finds some friends at lows
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 12th May (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) Monday benefited the USD with profit taking in equity markets helping to encourage paring back of short USD positions. Comments from George Soros’ that the USD is already weak and shouldn’t weaken too much more helped support. Crude Oil was down $0.37 ending the New York session at $58.13 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 7 points or -0.45% and the Dow Jones was down 155 points or -1.82%. Looking ahead, April Fed Budget is forecast at -20Bn vs. +159Bn previously.
·The Euro (EUR) eased with the market consolidating the large move on Friday. Speculation that the recent rally is overdone is helping to encourage fresh profit taking. Trichet commented that non standard policies from the ECB could remain for some time. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3556 and a high of 1.3669 before closing at 1.3590. Looking ahead, German CPI (Apr) forecast flat vs. -0.1% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to slip on the USD/JPY even as the USD strengthened. Weak stocks are once again prompting strength in the Yen, especially in crosses such as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.25 and a high of 98.83 before closing the day around 97.50 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Japan (March) leading indicators are forecast at -2%.
·The Sterling (GBP) pulled back fairly sharply helping the EUR/GBP to test 0.9000 on the topside. The Outlook for the Pound is becoming more mixed with the recent run up in Cable and GBP/JPY in danger of a correction with out fresh stimulus to continue. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5067 and a high of 1.5249 before closing the day at 1.5120 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Trade Balance forecast at -7.2bn vs. -7.32bn previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked the Euro lower as AUD/JPY selling weighed on the commodity currency. The AUD has led the field on the way up and is therefore the one of the most overbought along with the CAD. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7566 and a high of 0.7702 before closing the US session at 0.7595. Looking ahead, Federal Budget Released.
·Gold (XAU) eased slightly although trading was relatively quiet inside the range of Friday. Overall trading with a low of USD$908 and high of USD$918 before ending the New York session at USD$913 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3247 |
1.3343 |
1.3580 |
1.3739 |
1.3799 |
|
USD/JPY |
96.39 |
97.15 |
97.40 |
99.75 |
100.43 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4836 |
1.4944 |
1.5120 |
1.5373 |
1.5477 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.7337 |
0.7459 |
0.7580 |
0.7738 |
0.8097 |
|
XAU/USD |
878.00 |
895.00 |
913.00 |
933.00 |
845.00 |
·Euro – 1.3580
Initial support at 1.3343 (May 8 low) followed by 1.3247 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3739 (March 19 high) followed by 1.3799 (Jan 8 high)
·Yen – 97.40
Initial support is located at 97.15 (Apr 30 low) followed by 96.39 (Apr 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.75 (Apr 17 high) followed by 100.43 (Apr 14 high).
·Pound – 1.5120
Initial support at 1.4944 (May 7 low) followed by 1.4836 (May 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5373 (Jan 8 high) followed by 1.5477 (38.2% retrace 1.3503-1.8669).
·Australian Dollar – 0.7580
Initial support at 0.7459 (May 7 low) followed by the 0.7337 (May 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7738 (Oct 6 high) followed by 0.8097 (Sept 30 high).
·Gold – 913
Initial support at 895 (May 6 low) followed by 878 (Apr 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 933 (Apr 1 high) followed by 945 (Mar 26 high).
