Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 13/04/2009

April 13, 2009

Easter Markets Quiet but buoyant

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 13th April (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) managed to make decent gains even as risk appetite improved with global stock gains. EURO weakness kept all the majors under pressure with high yielder’s such as the Aussie the only currencies to break higher. US stocks rose on the back of better than expected Q1 results from Wells Fargo Bank. Crude Oil closed up $2.86 ending the New York session at $52.24 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 61 points or 3.89% whilst the Dow Jones was up 246 points or 3.14%. Looking ahead, quiet trading for Easter Monday around the world.

·The Euro (EUR) concerns about EU inflation were highlighted by German Inflation at 10 year lows and comments from ECB member Notwonty about the possibility of further rate cuts. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3090 and a high of 1.3158 before closing at 1.3146.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) remained pressured from the large rally in stocks although kept to a very tight range with low liquidity on Friday. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 100.22 and a high of 100.72 before closing the day around 100.38 in the New York session.

·The Sterling (GBP) fell in sympathy with Euro finding support near 1.4600 but struggling to test 1.4700 in light trading. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4619 and a high of 1.4672 before closing the day at 1.4640 in the New York session.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) found solid support in a new trade developing in the market termed ‘reflation’. Concern over the printing of money in Major economies has led to commodities such as copper and Oil being bought as an inflation hedge. The relatively high yielding commodity Aussie is a major recipient of this trade idea. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7179 and a high of 0.7208 before closing the US session at 0.7186.

·Gold (XAU) found support under $880 but failed to make gains. Overall trading with a low of USD$879 and high of USD$887 before ending the New York session at USD$882 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.3113

1.3127

1.3145

1.3420

1.3592

USD/JPY

98.23

99.32

100.35

100.87

101.44

GBP/USD

1.4450

1.4584

1.4635

1.4986

1.5154

AUD/USD

0.7034

0.7203

0.7215

0.7229

0.7268

XAU/USD

852.00

865.00

884.00

909.00

933.00

·Euro – 1.3145

Initial support at 1.3127 (Apr 9 low) followed by 1.3113 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3420 (April 7 high) at followed by 1.3592 (Mar 27 high)

·Yen – 100.35

Initial support is located at 99.32 (Apr 8 low) followed by 98.23 (Apr 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 100.87 (Apr 8 high) followed by 101.44 (Apr 6 high).

·Pound – 1.4635

Initial support at 1.4584 (Apr 7 low) followed by 1.4450 (Apr 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4986 (Feb 9 high) followed by 1.5154 (Jan 12 high).

·Australian Dollar – 0.7215

Initial support at 0.7203 (Apr 7 high) followed by the 0.7034 (Apr 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7229 (Apr 3 high) followed by 0.7268 (Jan 7 high).

·Gold – 884

Initial support at 865 (Apr 6 low) followed by 852 (Jan 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 909 (Apr 1 high) followed by 933 (Mar 26 high).

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