Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 13/08/2008

USD consolidates recent gains, Yen gains on credit worries.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 13^th August 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) continued to be the extremely well supported as gold made new lows and Oil failed to maintain gains. The US Trade Balance for June Narrowed to -59.8B from -60.5B in May and expectations of -62.5B. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 9 points (-0.38%) and the Dow Jones was up 139 points (-1.19%). Crude Oil closed down $1.44 ending the New York session at $113.01 per barrel. Looking ahead, July retail sales are seen down -0.1% in July (0.1% June) and import prices are seen increasing 1%.

·The Euro (EUR) staged a recovery off lows in the Asian session but once again found selling pressure during the US session as US data beat estimates and oil receded from highs. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4815 and a high of 1.4965 before closing the day at 1.4920 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Industrial Production m/m forecast at 0.1%.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained across the board as banking write downs sparked a new wave of risk aversion. All of the crosses made fresh multi month lows lead by the GBP/JPY. Q2 GDP came in at -0.6% and the Q2 GDP Deflator was slightly worse than forecast at -1.6% vs. expectations of -1.5%. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 109.28 and a high of 110.36 before closing the day around 109.40 in the New York session.

·The Sterling (GBP) Broke through the Key 1.9000 figure early in the Asian session and Strong CPI numbers for July were not enough to reverse market sentiment and cable closed below the figure. July CPI jumped 0.6% to 4.4% y/y. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.8953 and a high of 1.9122 before closing the day at 1.8960 in the New York session. Looking ahead, July Claimant Count seen at 17.5K and Average Earnings for June forecast at 3.6%.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) bounced again into the European session but as Gold tested the $800 support the Aussie was sold back to the .8700 level. The Nab Business confidence survey remained at -9 but the Westpac Consumer sentiment jumped 9.1% in July. Heavy AUD/JPY sales weighed. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8703 and a high of 0.8845 before closing the US session at 0.8710. UPDATE Wage Price Index Jumps to 1.2% in Q2.

·Gold (XAU) selling continued into the Asia session with Gold testing support at $800. A bounce in Oil allowed a temporary reprieve but was unable to be sustained. Overall trading with a low of USD$802.90 and high of USD$826.30 ending the New York session at USD$812 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.4930

Initial support at 1.4815 (Aug 12 low) followed by 1.4719 (76.4% retrace 1.4311 to 1.6038). Initial resistance is now located 1.4965 (Aug 12 low) at followed by 1.5084 (Aug 11 high).

·Yen – 108.55

Initial support is located at 108.22 (Aug 6 low) followed by 107.29 (Aug 7). Initial resistance is now at 109.14 (Aug 7 low) followed by 110.40 (Aug 11 high).

·Pound – 1.8955

Initial support at 1.8838 (Nov 15, 2006) followed by 1.8619 (61.8% retrace 1.7048 to 2.1161). Initial resistance is now at 1.9123 (Aug 12 high) followed by 1.9257 (Aug 11 high).

·Australian Dollar – 0.9630

Initial support at 0.8612 (Jan 23 low) followed by 0.8600 (Round Number). Initial resistance is now at 0.8704 (Aug 12 low) followed by 0.8846 (Aug 12 high).

·Gold – 812

Initial support at 803 (AUG 12 low) followed by 789.9 (61.8% retrace 640.00 to 1032.5). Initial resistance is now at 826.50 (Aug 12 low) followed by 846 (May 2 high).