CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 13th September (00:30 GMT)
Written by Anthony Darvall
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stocks finished the week positive on Friday and encouraged USD and Yen selling. Oil jumped 3% and this helped commodity currencies such as the CAD rally. Over the weekend a raft of Chinese data was released and was quite positive with August Industrial Production at 13.9% y/y and CPI at expectations of 3.5%y/y.In US stocks, DJIA +47 points closing at 10462, S& P +5 points closing at 1109 and NASDAQ +6 points closing at 2242.
The Euro (EUR) underperformed most currencies finishing on a weak note as news spread that the German Government owned HYPO bank would need substantial capital injections to keep afloat. Early Trade on Monday was very strong as new banking rules helped temper fears about European banks. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2645 and a high of 1.2747 before closing at 1.2707. Looking ahead, July Industrial Production is forecast at 0.2% vs. -0.1% previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) the yen was sold throughout the day with markets in a buoyant mood and USD/JPY finding some rare support. AUD/JPY is testing topside resistances and helping other crosses stabilize. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 83.76 and a high of 84.38 before closing the day around 83.18 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) lower than expected PPI input costs at -0.5% m/m eased some inflation fears and allowed a brief rally in Europe. The markets sold the rally once again however and finished at day lows with the Euro. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5346 and a high of 1.5466 before closing the day at 1.5351 in the New York session. Looking ahead, August Nationwide Consumer Confidence forecast at 59 vs. 46 previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was one of the best performing currencies on the back of strong AUD/JPY buying and EUR/AUD selling and surging Oil. The mood towards the Aussie has turned aggressively bullish and year highs at 0.9390 are targeted. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9206 and a high of 0.9268 before closing the US session at 0.9264.
Oil & Gold (XAU) Goldsuffered as safe haven demand eased more and profit taking encouraged sellers.Overall trading with a low of USD$1237 and high of USD $1251 before ending the New York session at USD$1246 an ounce. Oil Rallied 3% on news of a pipeline leak in Canada. WTI Oil Closed +$2.20 at $76.45 a barrel.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
EUR/USD |
1.2434 |
1.2588 |
1.2775 |
1.2933 |
1.3000 |
USD/JPY |
81.85 |
83.35 |
84.25 |
85.23 |
86.38 |
GBP/USD |
1.5125 |
1.5297 |
1.5390 |
1.5500 |
1.5713 |
AUD/USD |
0.8771 |
0.9055 |
0.9310 |
0.9389 |
0.9500 |
XAU/USD |
1210.00 |
1232 |
1243 |
1265 |
1300.00 |
OIL/USD |
72.50 |
75.00 |
77.30 |
78.00 |
80.00 |
Euro – 1.2775
Initial support at 1.2588 (Aug 24 low) followed by 1.2434 (61.8% retrace of 1.1877-1.3334). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2933 (Aug 12 low) followed by 1.3000 (Big figure Resistance)
Yen – 84.25
Initial support is located at 83.35 (Sept 8 low) followed by 81.85 (May 1995 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.23 (Sept 3 high) followed by 86.36 (Aug 13 high).
Pound – 1.5390
Initial support at 1.5297 (Sept 7 low) followed by 1.5125 (July 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5500 (Big Figure) followed by 1.5713 (Aug 12 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9310
Initial support at 0.9055 (Sept 2 low) followed by the 0.8771 (Aug 25 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9389 (Apr 12 high) followed by 0.9500 (Round Number).
Gold – 1243
Initial support at 1232 (Aug 31 low) followed by 1210 (Aug 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 1265 (June 21 high) followed by 1300 (round number).
Oil – 77.30
Initial support at 75.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 72.50 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 78.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Resistance).