Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 14/12/2007

Dollar boosted by strong data. Japanese Tankan Reports at 2 year lows for Q4

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –14 DECEMBER 2007 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) reversed its previous session declines against a number of majors, as stronger than forecasted reports on Retail Sales and PPI eased concerns that the US economy will contract considerably. Headline Retail Sales rose 1.2% last month, well above the previous 0.2%, and significantly higher than the 0.6% forecast. Producer Prices rose 3.2%, compared with a median forecast of 1.5% and a 0.1% increase in October. The dollar was able to strengthen as signs in sturdy consumption, eased fears of credit market turmoil. In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ was down -2.65 points (-0.1%) whilst the Dow Jones was slightly up by 44.06 points (+0.33%). Crude oil fell from previous session, to end the day at US$92.30 a barrel by US$2.09. Core CPI and Industrial production the key data releases out of the U.S. today.

·The Euro (EUR) eased versus the dollar on buoyant data out of the U.S. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4577 and a high of 1.4737 before closing the day at 1.4620 in the New York session. Looking ahead the HICP data out of the Eurozone will be key what is widely viewed as a hawkish ECB.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) rose versus a number of majors on speculation that the Federal Reserve led plan to provide banks with extra funds would not resolve credit market turmoil. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 111.41 and a high of 112.45 before closing the day at 112.20 in the New York session. Friday morning saw the release of Tankan Survey for the fourth quarter, touched a 2 year low coming at 19 (Forecast: 21 Prior: 23)

·The Sterling (GBP) fell versus dollar after strong consumption data out of the U.S. The U.K. pound declined after an industry survey showed the housing-market slowdown in Europe‘s second-biggest economy is worsening, raising speculation the Bank of England may need to cut interest rates again after a reduction to 5.5 percent last week. The GBPUSD traded with a low 2.0344 and a high of 2.0484 before closing the day at 2.0386.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened on the back of cross yen selling trading. Whilst data out of Australia saw Unemployment rise form 4.3% to 4.5% for the month of November. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.8736 and a high of 0.8867 before closing the day at 0.8753 in the New York session. The RBA injected 700million into the market on Friday morning, in an attempt to encourage borrowing between banks.

·Gold (XAU) fell the most in three weeks after a gain in the value of the dollar eroded the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment. XAU traded with a low of 792.35 and a high of 813.50.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.4720

Initial support at 1.4641 (Dec 10 low) followed by 1.4600 (Dec 7 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4770 (Dec 12 high) followed by 1.4800 (61.8% retracement of the 1.4968 to 1.4527 decline).

·Yen – 111.95

Initial support is located at 110.47 (Dec 11 low) followed by 110.00 (Psychological round number). Initial resistance is now at 112.59 (50% retracement of the 117.95 to 107.23 decline) followed by 112.88 (Nov 9 high)

·Pound – 2.0445

Initial support at 2.0331 (Dec 11 low) followed by 2.0299 (Dec 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 2.0584 (61.8% retracement of the 2.0833 to 2.0181 decline) followed by 2.0612 (Dec 5 high)

·Australian Dollar – 0.8840

Initial support a 0.8711 (Dec 11 low) followed by 0.8661 (Dec 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8896 (Dec 11 high) followed by 0.8921 (Nov 28 high)

·Gold – 811.50

Initial support at 791.80 (Dec 7 low) followed by 777.20 (Dec 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 812.98 (Dec 11 high) followed by 815.70 (November 27 high)