G7 summit fails to rally investor confidence in U.S currency.
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 15 APRIL 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) eased on Monday tracking equities markets as investors’ faith in the dollar was short lived following the G7 summit. Retail Sales figures released for the month of March rose 0.2%, whilst February data was revised to show a decline of -0.4%, rather than the reported -0.6%. In share market news, volumes were moderate as investors hold out for a number of profit results due to be released in the ensuing days. The Dow Jones eased 23 points (-0.2%), while the NASDAQ lost 14 points (-0.6%). Oil prices rose on Monday following a weaker dollar couple with continual supply concerns, rising US$1.62 a barrel to US$111.76. Looking ahead, PPI Core Output figures are to be released on Tuesday with expectations of a 0.2% growth for the month of March. Producer Price Index is also to be released on Tuesday with forecasts of a 0.6% growth for the month of March. Bear Stearns 1st Quarter profit and loss statement will be released on Tuesday.
·The Euro (EURO) was very volatile on Monday sinking to 1.56 following the G7 commentary indicating U.S currency strength was a concern, before rebounding to within a cent of the all-time high as the G7 failed to convince investors that they will intervene to prop up the U.S currency. ECB President Trichet spoke at 21:30 GMT whilst in New York about the financial markets turmoil, indicating transparency was needed from corporations when reporting profit and losses to allow an efficient and effective recovery. The EURUSD traded at a high of 1.5886 and a low of 1.5660 before closing at 1.5800 in
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened marginally against the greenback on Monday. Minutes from the BoJ March meeting were released which saw an expressed concern over the downside Japanese economic risks caused by the U.S slowdown and global financial turbulence. The USDJPY traded at a high of 101.50 and a low of 100.31, before closing at 101.05 in the
·The Sterling (GBP) rose against the major currencies on Monday as evidence of rising inflation was released by Bloomberg, possibly limiting the scope of the BoE to cut rates further in 2008. The GBPUSD traded at a high of 1.9895 and a low of 1.9651, before closing at 1.9751 in
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) inversely tracked U.S weakness on Monday beginning the Asian session weaker following the G7 rallying U.S confidence, before closing near the high of the day in
·Gold (XAU) prices rose on the back of a weaker greenback, enhancing the appeal of commodities. Price rose by US$1.70 an ounce (0.2%) to US$928.70.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
| Currency | Sup 2 | Sup 1 | Spot | Res 1 | Res 2 |
| EUR/USD | 1.5510 | 1.5669 | 1.5820 | 1.5887 | 1.5914 |
| USD/JPY | 99.36 | 100.03 | 101.10 | 102.28 | 102.84 |
| GBP/USD | 1.9607 | 1.9651 | 1.9730 | 1.9894 | 1.9928 |
| AUD/USD | 0.9177 | 0.9206 | 0.9265 | 0.9348 | 0.9473 |
| XAU/USD | 900.50 | 903.40 | 926.00 | 939.75 | 954.98 |
·Euro – 1.5740
Initial support at 1.5669 (Apr 14 low) followed by 1.5510 (Apr 3 Low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.5887 (Apr 14 high) followed by 1.5914 (April 10 trend).
·Yen – 102.00
Initial support is located at 100.03 (Apr 10 low) followed by 99.36 (50% retracement of the 95.76 to 102.95 advance). Initial resistance is now at 102.28 (Apr 11 high) followed by 102.84 (Apr 10 high).
·Pound – 1.9715
Initial support at 1.9651 (Apr 9 low) followed by 1.9607 (76.4 retracement of 1.9363-2.0398). Initial resistance is now at 1.9894 (Apr 14 high) followed by 1.9928 (Apr 8 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.9320
Initial support a 0.9206 (Apr 14 low) followed by 0.9177 (Apr 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9348 (Apr 10 high) followed by 0.9473 (Mar 13 high).
·Gold – 929.00
Initial support at 903.40 (Apr 9 low) followed by 900.50 (Apr 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 939.75 (Apr 10 high) followed by 954.98 (Mar 26 high).
