US Retail Sales Miss the Mark
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 15th April (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) took advantage of heavy profit taking in Asian Stocks and weakness in US stocks to finish stronger against the Euro and high yielding currencies. US Retail Sales were the major drag on the market falling -1.1% in March vs. a 0.3% rise forecast. PPI fell -1.2% in March and sparked concerns of deflation in the worlds largest economy. Crude Oil closed down $0.64 ending the New York session at $49.41 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 27 points or -1.67% whilst the Dow Jones was down 137 points or -1.71%. Looking ahead, March Core CPI forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.2% previously. Also released, April Industrial Output forecast at -1% vs. -15% previously.
·The Euro (EUR) traded lower as risk aversion hurt sentiment with both the Yen and Dollar gaining. Continued ECB rate cut speculation and recent weak data has kept the Euro pressured. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3228 and a high of 1.3377 before closing at 1.3260.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) fell heavily as Global stocks weakened with the break of the key 100 level enticing further selling. Crosses were led down by the EUR/JPY falling from 134 to 131.50. Poor US data reignited risk aversion and the Yen finished the day on a strong footing. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 98.77 and a high of 100.41 before closing the day around 98.90 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) found strength in a report from the Telegraph calling for a bottom in the UK housing slump. Risk aversion capped gains however with the 1.5000 level continuing to elude the resurgent Cable. Changing Moods about US banks continue to affect sentiment. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4828 and a high of 1.4942 before closing the day at 1.4890 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) started the day above 0.7300 at 6 month highs as the AUD took advantage of heavy buying before easing back for the rest of the day bouncing off support at 0.7230-50. China continues to play a pivotal role in the outlook for the AUD and commodity prices. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7204 and a high of 0.7319 before closing the US session at 0.7230.
·Gold (XAU) rallied as risk aversion prompted fresh safe haven flows although the $900 level proved too hard to crack. Overall trading with a low of USD$886 and high of USD$898 before ending the New York session at USD$889 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3090 |
1.3127 |
1.3260 |
1.3420 |
1.3592 |
|
USD/JPY |
97.23 |
98.23 |
98.95 |
100.87 |
101.44 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4450 |
1.4584 |
1.4890 |
1.4959 |
1.4986 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.7034 |
0.7170 |
0.7240 |
0.7355 |
0.7738 |
|
XAU/USD |
865.00 |
875.00 |
890.00 |
909.00 |
933.00 |
·Euro – 1.3260
Initial support at 1.3090 (Apr 10 low) followed by 1.2987 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3420 (April 7 high) at followed by 1.3592 (Mar 27 high)
·Yen – 98.95
Initial support is located at 98.23 (Apr 1 low) followed by 97.23 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 100.87 (Apr 8 high) followed by 101.44 (Apr 6 high).
·Pound – 1.4890
Initial support at 1.4584 (Apr 7 low) followed by 1.4450 (Apr 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4959 (Apr 6 high) followed by 1.4986 (Feb 9 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.7240
Initial support at 0.7170 (Apr 10 high) followed by the 0.7034 (Apr 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7355 (Oct 7 high) followed by 0.7738 (Oct 6 high).
·Gold – 890
Initial support at 875 (Apr 9 low) followed by 865 (Apr 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 909 (Apr 1 high)followed by 933 (Mar 26 high).
