Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 15/10/2009

DJIA above 10,000 boosting global sentiment.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 15^th October (00:30GMT)

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) eased slightly on Wednesday as equity markets were higher and optimism surrounding Global recovery. Despite Fed reserve member Kohn addressing Unemployment possibly topping 10%, recovery being more gradual than V-shaped, and concerns surrounding the reserve status of the greenback. Such comments assumed that interest rates would remain low for some time. On the data front US Retail Sales data fell less than expected, by -1.5% versus the forecasted -2.0%. FOMC minutes published were generally positive viewing economic activity beginning to pick up, with job losses slowing noticeably from earlier in 2009. In US Share markets the DJIA was higher by 144.80 pts (+1.47%) and above key 10,000 levels whilst the NASDAQ also rallied by 32.4 pts (+1.51%). In key data ahead, focus will surround the Jobless Claims and CPI figures which are forecasted to come in at 0.1% for the month of September.

The Euro (EUR) set fresh 2009 highs on Wednesday on the back of improving risk appetite and a rise in Industrial Production rising by 0.9% for the month of August, although below forecasts of 1.2%. Much of the moves were prompted as US equities headed higher diminishing demand for the USD as a safe haven. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4870 and a high of 1.4940 before closing the day at 1.4920. On the data front, EU CPI will be monitored whilst ECB President Trichet is scheduled to speak.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) was stronger taking advantage of broadly weaker USD, as the BoJ were unanimous in there decision to keep interest rates on hold, whilst upgrading their outlook on the Japanese Economy. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.90 and a high of 89.95 before closing the day at 89.40

The Sterling (GBP) also took advantage of a weaker USD and further by positive readings in UK unemployment which was steady at 7.9%, however Jobless claims only rose by 20.8K, the smallest rise since May 2008. Overall the GBPUSD of 1.5902 and a high of 1.6026 before closing the day at 1.5981.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded at a fresh 14 month high as positive sentiment continues to add to bullish Aussie dollar. Overall the AUD traded with a low of 0.9105 and a high of 0.9164 before closing the day at 0.9140. In Asia, RBA Governor Stevens indicated that the Monetary Tightening cycle had begun further fuelling bets that the Central Bank may look to hike in their next meeting in November.AUD trades at 0.9195 post comments (14month high).

Oil &amp Gold (XAU) traded at a record high once more at a high of 1072.00 before profit taking pushed the precious metal lower to end the day up by US$0.30 an ounce at US$1064.70. Crude Oil also traded at a year highs in Asia on Thursday at 75.94, having closed up US$1.03 a barrel at US$75.18 following optimistic views that Global Economic growth would lift demand

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Euro – 1.4945

Initial support at 1.4646 (Oct 6 low) followed by 1.4481 (Oct 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4980 (Aug 13 2008 high) followed by 1.500 (Psych Level)

Yen – 89.35

Initial support is located at 89.35 (Oct 12 low) followed by 88.01 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.63 (Sep 24 high) followed by 92.53 (Sept 21 high).

Pound – 1.6045

Initial support at 1.5708 (Oct 13 low) followed by 1.5450 (May 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6120 (Oct 8 high) followed by 1.6207 (23.6% retracement 1.3503 – 1.7043).

Australian Dollar – 0.9190

Initial support at 0.8985 (Oct 12 low) followed by the 0.8866 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9206 (Aug 14 ’08 high) followed by 0.9347 (Aug 4 ’08 high).

Gold – 1063.90

Initial support at 1047.33 (Oct 7 low) followed by 1036.90 (Oct 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1070.80 (14 Oct high) followed by 1100 (Psych Level).

Oil – 75.85

Initial support at 74.64 followed by 73.96.Initial resistance is now at 76 followed by 76.22