Europe Cuts Rates by 0.5%
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 16th January 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed although it did find strength in weak Oil and risk aversion. US data was mixed with Weekly Jobless claims jumping up 524K vs. 500K forecast. December PPI dropped -1.9% vs. -2% forecast. US stocks rebounded off the 8000 level on the Dow. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 22 points (1.49%) and the Dow Jones was up 12 points (0.15%). Crude Oil closed down $-1.88 ending the New York session at $34.69 per barrel. Looking ahead, December Core CPI expected at 0.1% vs. 0.0% previously. Also released, November Capital Net Flows previously at 286.3Bn.
·The Euro (EUR) was volatile holding to a tight range until the ECB meeting where they cut as expected to 2.0% from 2.5% previously. ECB President Trichet noted that the next meeting of note will be in March when further GDP and Inflation data is available. Traders took this as a pause on rate cuts and bought up the Euro to day highs before stock weakness and large falls in Oil pushed the Euro lower. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3028 and a high of 1.3242 before closing the day at 1.3180. Looking ahead, November Trade Balance previously at 0.9bn.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) was volatile initially gaining as Asian stocks slumped following the US lead. A reversal in US stock direction allowed all the crosses to stage a relief rally. November Machine Orders fell 16.2% vs. -8.1% forecast.Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 88.50 and a high of 90.02 before closing the day around 89.90 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) experienced a sell off at the beginning of the US session but found support at 1.45 and rallied back to 1.4650. The Pound was supported against most currencies especially the EURO and JPY. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4476 and a high of 1.4683 before closing the day at 1.4650 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) took advantage of the late rally in US stocks to reverse losses that were seen on the back of weak commodities and rising risk aversion. December Unemployment came in better than expected at -1.2K vs. -20k Forecast. Also released the December Unemployment Rate which jumped to 4.5% vs. 4.4% previously. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6540 and a high of 0.6701 before closing the US session at 0.6680.
·Gold (XAU) gained as the $800 level propped the pair and buyers emerged. Overall trading with a low of USD$802 and high of USD$821 before ending the New York session at USD$817 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3000 |
1.3026 |
1.3140 |
1.3242 |
1.3338 |
|
USD/JPY |
87.14 |
88.42 |
89.90 |
90.03 |
90.47 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4431 |
1.4470 |
1.4655 |
1.4708 |
1.5154 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6490 |
0.6538 |
0.6680 |
0.6820 |
0.7042 |
|
XAU/USD |
774.00 |
802.00 |
818.00 |
857.00 |
870.00 |
·Euro – 1.3140
Initial support at 1.3026 (Jan 15 low) followed by 1.3000 (Dec 11 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3242 (Jan 15 high) at followed by 1.3338 (Jan 14 high)
·Yen – 88.90
Initial support is located at 88.42 (Dec 19 low) followed by 87.14 (Dec 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.03 (Jan 15 high) followed by 90.47 (Jan 12 high).
·Pound – 1.4655
Initial support at 1.4470 (Jan 13 low) followed by 1.4431 (Jan 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4709 (Jan 14 high) followed by 1.5154 (Jan 12 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6680
Initial support at 0.6538 (Jan 15 low) followed by the 0.6490 (Dec 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6701 (Jan 15 high) followed by 0.6819 (Jan 15 high).
·Gold – 818
Initial support at 802 (Jan 12 low) followed by 774 (Dec 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 857 (Jan 12 high) followed by 870 (Jan 6 high).
