US House passes 2nd Stimulus bill
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 16th February 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a mixed day with the market initially selling the dollar in Asia before weak European Data and sluggish US stocks let the reserve currency pare back losses ahead of the G7 meeting over the weekend. Stocks welcomed the House passing the 2nd stimulus bill but weak Consumer sentiment weighed. UoM Sentiment fell to 56.2 vs. 60.6 expected. Crude Oil closed up $3.53 ending the New York session at $37.51 per barrel. In US share markets, the Dow Jones fell 82 points or -1.04% and the NASDAQ fell 7 points or -0.48%. Looking ahead, Presidents day in America.
·The Euro (EUR) weakened after GDP data revealed the economy’s slowdown was accelerating. Q4 German GDP fell -2.1% vs. -1.8% forecast and the Eurozone GDP dropped -1.5% vs. -1.3%. Weakness in stocks capped any recovery seen in the EUR/JPY. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2822 and a high of 1.2941 before closing the day at 1.2890.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) positive momentum in Asia sent the crosses to day highs in early Europe but the lack of follow through in US stocks pare gains going into the weekend. USD/JPY was especially well supported as technically this pair pointed to a break higher and the market is cautious of any intervention talk out of the G7 meeting. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.55 and a high of 92.05 before closing the day around 91.83 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Japan GDP Q4 forecast to fall -3.1% Q/Q.
·The Sterling (GBP) rebounded during the day briefly touching 1.46 before settling back into the US close. Market views are mixed with some participants covering shorts ahead of the G7 on concerns the Pounds weakness may be mentioned. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4279 and a high of 1.4605 before closing the day at 1.4392 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) was well supported during Asia as news broke that the Australian Government had passed its own stimulus package. Again in the US session the Aussie rallied as the US stimulus package moved through the House of Reps. Helping to keep the pair buoyant was the 7% rally in Oil. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6533and a high of 0.6642 before closing the US session at 0.6592.
·Gold (XAU) consolidated gains after failing to break cleanly above $950 during the US session. Overall trading with a low of USD$936 and high of USD$952 before ending the New York session at USD$932 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2707 |
1.2722 |
1.2810 |
1.2821 |
1.2998 |
|
USD/JPY |
89.71 |
90.54 |
91.40 |
92.04 |
92.42 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3929 |
1.4137 |
1.4240 |
1.4415 |
1.4565 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6432 |
0.6523 |
0.6535 |
0.6643 |
0.6798 |
|
XAU/USD |
889.00 |
911.00 |
942.00 |
950.00 |
952.00 |
·Euro – 1.2810
Initial support at 1.2722 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1.2707 (Feb 2 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2821 (Feb 13 low) at followed by 1.2998 (Feb 11 high)
·Yen – 91.40
Initial support is located at 90.54 (Feb 13 low) followed by 89.71 (Feb 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.04 (Feb 13 high) followed by 92.42 (Feb 9 high).
·Pound – 1.4240
Initial support at 1.4137 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1.3929 (Jan 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4415 (Feb 12 high) followed by 1.4565 (Feb 11 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6535
Initial support at 0.6523 (Feb 13 low) followed by the 0.6432 (Feb 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6643 (Feb 13 high) followed by 0.6798 (Feb 10 high).
·Gold – 942
Initial support at 911 (Feb 11 low) followed by 889 (Feb 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 950 (Key level) followed by 952 (Feb 12 high).
