China GDP slowing
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 17th April (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a mixed day as selling pressure on the back of buoyant stocks competed against the news of a slowing Chinese economy. March House Starts came in at 0.51m vs. 0.54m forecast. Banking results helped to underpin the equity rally once again. Crude Oil closed up $0.73 ending the New York session at $49.98 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 43 point or 2.68% whilst the Dow Jones was up 95 points or 1.19%. Looking ahead, UoM April Consumer Sentiment forecast at 58.5 vs. 57.3 previously.
·The Euro (EUR) found support in the low 1.31’s as the market responded negatively to the slowing Chinese GDP Q1 at 6.1% y/y. The rebound from these levels came as EUR/JPY buying emerged after JP Morgan’s results. CPI (Mar) came out at 0.6% as forecasted. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3128 and a high of 1.3267 before closing at 1.3180. Looking ahead, EU Trade (Feb) forecast at -5.5bn vs. -10.5 bn previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) came under heavy buying after China’s GDP resulted in profit taking and risk aversion. The Sentiment managed to be turned around in the USD session and USD/JPY finished well above 99 Yen. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 98.54 and a high of 99.59 before closing the day around 99.40 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Household Confidence forecast at 29.3 vs. 26.7 previously.
·The Sterling (GBP) came back off the 1.5000 level in Early Asia and fell quite heavily during the European session. Concern of government debt levels and data showing weak Retail Sales the main catalysts for selling. The pound still remains in a bullish mood however and further stabs above 1.5000 can not be ruled out. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4842 and a high of 1.5068 before closing the day at 1.4920 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) tested 0.7300 but once again fell heavily as the china story took hold and heavy AUD/JPY selling accelerated the downside. The 0.7150 level held firm once again and the pair recovered into the US close. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7140 and a high of 0.7315 before closing the US session at 0.7220.
·Gold (XAU) broke to the downside as continued positive sentiment took the shine off the alternative investment. Overall trading with a low of USD$872 and high of USD$893 before ending the New York session at USD$876 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2987 |
1.3090 |
1.3185 |
1.3297 |
1.3420 |
|
USD/JPY |
95.96 |
97.23 |
99.35 |
99.66 |
101.44 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4450 |
1.4584 |
1.4930 |
1.5154 |
1.5373 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.7034 |
0.7170 |
0.7210 |
0.7355 |
0.7738 |
|
XAU/USD |
865.00 |
875.00 |
876.00 |
909.00 |
933.00 |
·Euro – 1.3185
Initial support at 1.3090 (Apr 10 low) followed by 1.2987 (April 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3297 (April 15 high) at followed by 1.3297 (Mar 27 high)
·Yen – 99.35
Initial support is located at 97.23 (Mar 31 low) followed by 95.96 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.66 (Apr 15 high) followed by 100.87 (Apr 8 high).
·Pound – 1.4930
Initial support at 1.4826 (Apr 14 low) followed by 1.4584 (Apr 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5168 (Apr 16 high) followed by 1.5154 (Jan 12 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.7210
Initial support at 0.7149 (Apr 15 high) followed by the 0.7034 (Apr 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7355 (Oct 7 high) followed by 0.7738 (Oct 6 high).
·Gold – 876
Initial support at 875 (Apr 9 low) followed by 865 (Apr 6 low). Initial resistance is now at 909 (Apr 1 high) followed by 933 (Mar 26 high).
