Daily Outlook 17th September 2010
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) markets where range bound with the dollar unchanged against most pairs and little movement in the stock markets. Weekly Jobless Claims were solid at 453k vs. 460k forecast. August PPI accelerated at 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m forecast.In US stocks, DJIA +22 points closing at 10594, S& P -1 points closing at 1124 and NASDAQ +2 points closing at 2303. Looking ahead, August CPI is forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.1% previously. Also released, September UoM is forecast 70 vs. 68.9 previously.
The Euro (EUR) was able to push higher after holding above 1.3000 and testing 1.3100. July trade balance was 6.7bn vs. 1.5bn forecast. EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF were both very strong up over 1% each as the BOJ intervention promoted more short covering and the Swiss Monetary Policy Statement was dovish. EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2974 and a high of 1.3118 before closing at 1.3070. Looking ahead, German August PPI forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.5%.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) constant chatter from Japanese officials about intervention and the USD/JPY being bought on dips has emboldened traders to push crosses higher with EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY higher. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 85.21 and a high of 85.94 before closing the day around 85.80 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) was unable to break the 1.5650 resistance once again but was very stable with support under 1.5600. September CPI orders fell to -14 vs. -17 previously. GBP/JPY topped out over Y134 but technical strong. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5536 and a high of 1.5651 before closing the day at 1.5620 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure from profit taking with the market recovering form overbought conditions. The selling though was not aggressive and support was found at 0.9340. AUD/JPY finished above the key Y80 level and is targeting Y82 if the yen weakness continues. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9329 and a high of 0.9397 before closing the US session at 0.9365.
Oil & Gold (XAU) the market pushed cautiously higher to fresh all time highs. Overall trading with a low of USD$1264 and high of USD $1278 before ending the New York session at USD$1274 an ounce. Oil continued to fall sharply on the fixing of the US-Canadian pipeline. WTI Oil Closed -$1.45 at $74.57 a barrel.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2588 |
1.2830 |
1.3070 |
1.3187 |
1.3334 |
|
USD/JPY |
82.88 |
83.99 |
85.75 |
85.93 |
86.70 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5297 |
1.5449 |
1.5605 |
1.5571 |
1.5999 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9055 |
0.9171 |
0.9365 |
0.9458 |
0.9500 |
|
XAU/USD |
1210.00 |
1232 |
1274 |
1278 |
1300.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
71.00 |
72.50 |
74.70 |
75.00 |
78.00 |
Euro – 1.3070
Initial support at 1.2830 (Sep 14 low) followed by 1.2588 (Aug 24 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3187 (Aug 11 low) followed by 1.3334 (Aug 6 High)
Yen – 85.75
Initial support is located at 83.99 (61.8% retrace of 82.88-85.78) followed by 82.88 (Sept 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 85.93 (Sep 16 high) followed by 86.70 (38.2% retrace of 92.89-81.88).
Pound – 1.5605
Initial support at 1.5449 (Sept 15 low) followed by 1.5297 (Sept 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5731 (61.8% retrace of 1.5999-1.5297) followed by 1.5999 (Aug 6 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9365
Initial support at 0.9171 (Sept 9 low) followed by the 0.9055 (Sep 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9458 (Apr 14 high) followed by 0.9500 (Round Number).
Gold – 1274
Initial support at 1232 (Aug 31 low) followed by 1210 (Aug 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 1278 (June 21 high) followed by 1300 (round number).
Oil – 74.70
Initial support at 72.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 71.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 75.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Resistance).
Written by Anthony Darvall
