Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 17/11/2008

Weak US retail Sales Hurt Market Sentiment

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 17th November 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was strong heading into the weekend as US stocks ended very weak on the back of slumping Retail Sales. October Retail Sales were worse than expected at -2.8% vs. -2.0%m/m. The USD is currently benefiting from the market turmoil as investors demand for the worlds reserve currency is significantly boosted. Also released on Friday, November UoM Consumer Sentiment which rose slightly to 57.9 from 57.6 previously. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 79 points (-5.00%) and the Dow Jones was down 337 points (-3.82%). Crude Oil closed down $1.20 ending the New York session at $57.04 per barrel. Looking ahead, October Industrial Output seen at 0.2% vs. -2.8% previously.

·The Euro (EUR) was hurt by the confirmation of a Eurozone recession with Q3 GDP at -0.2%. Also confirmed the EU CPI in October at 3.2% Y/Y rate. The EUR/USD was sold off late in the US session as stocks slumped into the close but had climbed for most the day on the back of weak US data. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2613 and a high of 1.2825 before closing the day at 1.2690 in the New York session. Looking ahead, EU trade is seen at -7.3 Bn in September.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) gave up most of Thursdays gains as the market paired stock gains into the weekend ahead of the G20 meeting over the weekend. The late Dow selloff sent most of the crosses to near day lows. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 96.10 and a high of 98.08 before closing the day around 97.10 in the New York session. Looking Ahead, preliminary Q3 GDP seen at 0.1% vs. -0.7% previously. Update Q3 GDP released at -0.1%

·The Sterling (GBP) continued to be extremely well offered with the pair losing ground as the UK faces a near certain recession. Concerns over the plummeting Pound has lead to comments over the weekend from Shadow Chancellor Osborne that he fears a run on the Pound. PM Brown has dismissed the comments, countering that the UK public debt is still not as highs as some European countries. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4661 and a high of 1.4956 before closing the day at 1.4790 in the New York session.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked Equities with the AUD falling steadily from the highs seen on Thursday. A brief rally was seen on poor US data until stock weakness late in the US session saw the Aussie back at lows. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6512 and a high of 0.6694 before closing the US session at 0.6540. Looking ahead, Q3 Retail Sales.

·Gold (XAU) gained after weak US data and remained supported as the market factored in more US rate cuts to stoke demand. Overall trading with a low of USD$725 and high of USD$755 before ending the New York session at USD$745 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.2650

Initial support at 1.2513 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1.2389 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2742 (Nov 17 low) at followed by 1.2855 (Nov 13 high)

·Yen – 96.45

Initial support is located at 95.88 (Nov 17 low) followed by 94.48 (Nov 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.55 (Nov 17 high) followed by 98.19 (Nov 13 high).

·Pound – 1.5000

Initial support at 1.4647 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1.4558 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5083 (Nov 17 high) followed by 1.5366 (38.2% retrace 1.6672 to 1.4558).

·Australian Dollar – 0.6510

Initial support at 0.6339 (Oct 29 low) followed by the 0.6246 (76.4% retracement of 0.6009-0.7015 rally). Initial resistance is now at 0.6596 (Nov 17 high) followed by 0.6696 (Nov 14 high).

·Gold – 737

Initial support at 725.40 (Nov 14 low) followed by 700 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 754.55 (Nov 14 high) followed by 768.21 (Nov 10 high).