Global Stocks Remain Under Pressure
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 18th February 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) took the centre stage making strong gains as Global risk aversion notched higher. Concerns about Auto makers and Eastern European Banks were the main drivers of fear. February NY FEB Manufacturing dropped more than expected to -34 vs. -22 previously. Crude Oil closed down $2.58 ending the New York session at $34.93 per barrel. In the US share markets, the Nasdaq was down -4.15% or -63.70 points whilst the Dow Jones fell -3.79% or 297 points. Looking ahead, January Industrial Output forecast at -1.5% vs. -2%. Also FOMC minutes released and FED Chairman Bernanke speaks.
·The Euro (EUR) broke lower crashing through 1.27 support as news of the troubled Eastern European banks took hold of the market. During Europe the pair found support at 1.26 but remained very weak during the day. February German Zew Survey dropped to -86 vs. -77 previously but expectations did improve. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2799 and a high of 1.2560 before closing the day at 1.2580.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) had a very interesting trading day losing ground against the USD which has become the preferred safe haven currency but managing to gain against nearly all the others. Some analysts are pointing to the terrible GDP data whilst others see the market already very short USD/JPY and due for a pullback. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.59 and a high of 92.74 before closing the day around 92.40 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) held up surprisingly well as heavy EUR/GBP supported the cable against USD strength. Continued support is seen above the key 1.4150 level. CPI Data beat expectations in January at 3.0% vs. 2.6%. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4126 and a high of 1.4311 before closing the day at 1.4240 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February CBI Orders are forecast to improve slightly to -45 vs. -48 previously. Also released MPC minutes forecast at 9-0.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked the Euro coming under severe pressure as risk aversion pounded the high yielder lower. The key level at 0.6480 broke and the pair fell quickly to 0.6400 and remained under pressure as US stocks continued their downtrend. RBA minutes released gave little away in the way of future policy decisions. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6335 and a high of 0.6530 before closing the US session at 0.6370. Looking ahead, Q4 Retail Sales forecast to rise 1.0% vs. 0.1% previously.
·Gold (XAU) broke higher as banking risk intensified the alternate investment value of the precious metal. Overall trading with a low of USD$941 and high of USD$973 before ending the New York session at USD$968 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2425 |
1.2550 |
1.2575 |
1.2864 |
1.2998 |
|
USD/JPY |
90.54 |
91.33 |
92.35 |
92.91 |
94.14 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3929 |
1.4052 |
1.4230 |
1.4471 |
1.4605 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6249 |
0.6343 |
0.6345 |
0.6567 |
0.6643 |
|
XAU/USD |
911.00 |
932.00 |
970.00 |
976.00 |
988.00 |
·Euro – 1.2575
Initial support at 1.2550 (Dec 4 low) followed by 1.2425 (Nov 21 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2864 (Feb 16 low) at followed by 1.2998 (Feb 11 high)
·Yen – 92.35
Initial support is located at 91.33 (Feb 16 low) followed by 90.54 (Feb 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 92.91 (Jan 8 high) followed by 94.14 (Jan 7 high).
·Pound – 1.4230
Initial support at 1.4052 (Feb 2 low) followed by 1.3929 (Jan 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4471 (Feb 16 high) followed by 1.4605 (Feb 13 High).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6345
Initial support at 0.6343 (Feb 17 low) followed by the 0.6249 (Feb 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6567 (Feb 16 high) followed by 0.6643 (Feb 13 high).
·Gold – 970
Initial support at 932 (Feb 13 low) followed by 911 (Feb 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 976 (July 22 high) followed by 988 (July 15 high).
