Markets Rally Across the Globe
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 18th March (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a mixed day losing ground against the Risk currencies but holding its own against the two biggest currency pairs the Euro and the Yen. February PPI dropped -0.6%m/m it’s biggest drop in 7 months as energy costs fell. In US stocks, DJIA +47 points closing at 10733, S& P +6 points closing at 1166 and NASDAQ +11 points closing at 2389. Looking ahead, February CPI forecast at 0.1% vs. -0.1% m/m. Also released, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 455k vs. 462k previously.
The Euro (EUR) failed above 1.3800 and pulled back for the rest of the day as profit tacking on EUR/JPY weighed. EUR/JPY tested Y125 but this proved too much for the single currency as the recent run up has been fairly quick. Attention remains on Germany’s internal debates concerning the bailout of Greece. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3638 and a high of 1.3725 before closing at 1.3819. Looking ahead, January Current Account.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) had a knee jerk reaction to the BOJ meeting as the expansion of special funding by 10Trn as widely expected but was voted for by only a 5-2 majority. Yen strength was short lived however as the risk environment trumped and stocks around the globe enjoyed solid gains. AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY led the crosses higher. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.01 and a high of 90.74 before closing the day around 90.30 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) popped above resistance at 1.5270 as Jobs data beat expectations. February Unemployment fell 32k vs. a rise of 8k forecast. GBP/JPY rallied to Y139 briefly and EUR/GBP crashed through the Key 0.9000 level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5207 and a high of 1.5385 before closing the day at 1.5340 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Public Debt forecast at 14bn vs. 4bn previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) finally broke above resistance at 0.9200 as AUD/JPY buying propelled the pair higher in Europe. Weak Gold and Euro capped gains. Earlier in the Day Assistant RBA Governor Debelle stated that further interest rates hikes were on the way. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9172 and a high of 0.9254 before closing the US session at 0.9230.
Oil & Gold (XAU) failed above $1130 and fell back to lower $1120’s support. Overall trading with a low of USD$1118 and high of USD$11 before ending the New York session at USD$1127 an ounce. Continued to be well supported by the strong risk appetite. Crude Oil was down $1.20 ending the New York session at $82.90.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3621 |
1.3640 |
1.3720 |
1.3839 |
1.3903 |
|
USD/JPY |
89.63 |
89.99 |
90.35 |
90.74 |
91.09 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4855 |
1.4979 |
1.5310 |
1.5422 |
1.5477 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9056 |
0.9096 |
0.9220 |
0.9252 |
0.9280 |
|
XAU/USD |
1094.00 |
1108 |
1122.00 |
1137 |
1161.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
78.00 |
80 |
82.60 |
83.2 |
85.00 |
Euro – 1.3720
Initial support at 1.3640 (Mar 15 low) followed by 1.3621 (Mar 11 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3839 (Feb 9 high) followed by 1.3903 (Feb 4 high)
Yen – 90.35
Initial support is located at 89.99 (Mar 16 low) followed by 89.63 (Mar 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.74 (Mar 16 high) followed by 91.09 (Mar 12 high).
Pound – 1.5310
Initial support at 1.4979 (Mar 16 low) followed by 1.4855 (Mar 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5422 (Feb 25 high) followed by 1.5477 (Feb 24 low).
Australian Dollar – 0.9220
Initial support at 0.9096 (Mar 15 low) followed by the 0.9056 (Mar 4 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9252 (Mar 17 high) followed by 0.9280 (Jan 18 high).
Gold – 1122
Initial support at 1108 (Mar 16 low) followed by 1094 (0.5 of 1044.85-1144.98). Initial resistance is now at 1137 (Mar 8 high) followed by 1161 (Jan 11 high).
Oil – 82.60
Initial support at 80.00 (Intraday Support) followed by 78.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 83.20 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 85.00 (March High).
