USD surges as Oil dips below $130 per barrel
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 18th July 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained against most of the majors for the 2nd day as stocks continued to rebound off the year lows seen on Tuesday. Earning Reports from JP Morgan were better than expectations helping to boost financials. Crude Oil dipped below the key $130 level inspiring a modest USD rally. US data was marginally positive with Housing starts back above 1 million (1.066 actual vs. 0.960 expected) and Weekly Jobless claims gaining less than forecast at 360K. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 27 points (1.2%) and the Dow Jones was up 207 points (1.85%). Crude Oil closed down $4.69 ending the New York session at $129.91 per barrel.
·The Euro (EUR) consolidated recent falls, trading in a range with rally’s capped by further falls in Oil. Large gains in the EUR/JPY supported. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5782 and a high of 1.5894 before closing the day at 1.5850 in the New York session. Looking ahead, we have June German PPI expected at 0.7% and the EU May Trade Balance is seen at 0.9 Billion.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) was sold heavily as the carry trade roared back into life on positive equities gains. All the crosses made substantial gains especially the GBP/JPY. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 104.76 and a high of 107.11 before closing the day around 106.25 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) traded in a tight range pivoting the key 2.00 level. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9949 and a high of 2.0073 before closing the day at 2.0020 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Public Sector net borrowing is seen at 7.4 Billion.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) Declined for the third day as Oil and Gold took another leg lower. Strong AUD/JPY buying supported and limited any Aussie weakness. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9678 and a high of 0.9791 before closing the day at 0.9725. Looking ahead, 2nd Quarter Export and Import prices seen at 10% and 1.7% respectively.
·Gold (XAU) traded lower but managed to hold up well relative to Oil and other Commodities as the USD rallied. Overall trading with a low of USD$954.20 and high of USD$978.25 ending the New York session at USD$959 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.5612 |
1.5765 |
1.5855 |
1.5948 |
1.6038 |
|
USD/JPY |
103.69 |
103.78 |
106.25 |
107.09 |
107.76 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.9815 |
1.9933 |
1.9975 |
2.0157 |
2.0193 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9664 |
0.9675 |
0.9725 |
0.9818 |
0.9849 |
|
XAU/USD |
950.00 |
953.00 |
959.00 |
981.21 |
988.00 |
·Euro – 1.5855
Initial support at 1.5765 (July 11 low) followed by 1.5612 (July 7 low). Initial resistance is now located 1.4948 (July 16 high) at followed by 1.6036 (July 15 High).
·Yen – 106.25
Initial support is located at 103.78 (July 16 low) followed by 103.69 (38.2% retracement of 0.9576-108.59). Initial resistance is now at 107.09 (July 17 high) followed by 107.76 (July 7 high).
·Pound – 1.9975
Initial support at 1.9933 (July 15 low) followed by 1.9815 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 2.0157 (July 15 high) followed by 2.0193 (Mar 27 high)
·Australian Dollar – 0.9725
Initial support at 0.9675 (July 17 low) followed by 0.9664 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9818 (July 16 high) followed by 0.9849 (July 15 High).
·Gold – 959
Initial support at 953 (Jul 17 low) followed by 950 (Round Number). Initial resistance is now at 981.25 (July 15 high) followed by 988.0 (July 15 high).
