USD rebounds after Fresh lows
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 18th September (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) finally hit a bottom as the stock market rally stalled in the US and profit taking set in for the rest of the day. USD/JPY rallied and the Euro fell back from Fresh year highs. Weekly Jobless Claims improved to 545k vs. 557k previously. August Housing Starts were at 0.60m as forecast. Crude Oil was down -$0.04 closing at $72.47. In US Stocks, DJIA -7 points closing at 9783, S& P -3 points closing at 1065 and NASDAQ -6 points closing at 2136.
The Euro (EUR) traded at fresh year highs at 1.4768 going into Europe but was quickly reversed as the USD found buyers and profit taking set in. When US stocks slipped the market extended losses but 1.4700 continued to support. News that S& P was considered downgrading $578Bn in CDO’s prompted the market to halt taking on risk. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4689 and a high of 1.4767 before closing at 1.4730. Looking ahead, August PPI forecast at 0.2% vs. -1.5% previously. Also released, July current Account forecast previously at -5.3bn.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened at the start of Europe but failed once again on the downside at 90.50 this time before reversing towards 91.50 resistance. Weak stocks and stalling crosses capped the topside with the USD/JPY ending at 91 supports for the third day. The BOJ held at 0.1% but did upgrade the economic assessment. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.52 and a high of 91.62 before closing the day around 91.05 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) weakened in a broad based fashion as UK data failed to inspire support. BoE’s comments about possible further expansion of the QE program and general USD strength pushed cable back to 1.6400. August Retail Sales were flat vs. 0.1% forecast. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6403 and a high of 1.6661 before closing the day at 1.6500 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was strong with the Euro hitting new year highs at 0.8775. Weak US stocks pulled the pair back to supports at 0.8700. The Market is still very bullish and pullbacks are being viewed as correctional. Ongoing high prices in Metals and Oil are underpinning the gains along with hawkish views on Australian Interest Rates. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8690 and a high of 0.8775 before closing the US session at 0.8730.
Gold (XAU) traded to fresh highs above $1024 as Gold continued to push higher. Overall trading with a low of USD$1010 and high of USD$1024 before ending the New York session at USD$1015 an ounce.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4467 |
1.4516 |
1.4715 |
1.4768 |
1.4866 |
|
USD/JPY |
89.71 |
90.00 |
91.30 |
91.64 |
92.60 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.6114 |
1.6237 |
1.6380 |
1.6742 |
1.6831 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8383 |
0.8529 |
0.8695 |
0.8814 |
0.8943 |
|
XAU/USD |
982.00 |
992.00 |
1012.00 |
1032.00 |
1050.00 |
Euro – 1.4715
Initial support at 1.4516 (Sept 14 low) followed by 1.4467 (Sept 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4768 (Sept 17 high) followed by 1.4866 (Sept 22 2008 high)
Yen – 91.30
Initial support is located at 90.00 (Big Figure) followed by 89.71 (February 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.64 (Sept 15 high) followed by 92.60 (Sept 9 high).
Pound – 1.6380
Initial support at 1.6237 (Sept 3 low) followed by 1.6114 (Sept 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6742 (Sept 11 high) followed by 1.6831 (Aug 7 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8695
Initial support at 0.8529 (Sept 8 low) followed by the 0.8383 (61.8% retrace 0..9850-0.6009). Initial resistance is now at 0.8813 (Aug 22 2008 high) followed by 0.8943 (76.4% retrace 0.9850-0.6009).
Gold – 1012
Initial support at 992 (Sept 15 low) followed by 982 (Sept 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 1032 (Mar 17′ 2008 high) followed by 1050 (Psychological Figure).
