USD Rout Continues
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 18th December 2008 (00:30GMT)
- U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market was relentless in its punishment of the USD yesterday pushing past 1.4000 and not stopping until resistance at the 1.4425 level. As Selling accelerates many are now calling this reversal a new trend and targeting previous levels of USD weakness. US Current Account deficit fell to 174Bn vs. 180Bn previously. The selling is technically oversold but has shown little sign of waning. Oil fell sharply as the OPEC cut under whelmed the market and Oil slipped below $40 a barrel. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 10 points (-0.67%) and the Dow Jones was down 99 points (-1.12%). Crude Oil closed down $3.54 ending the New York session at $40.05 per barrel. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless claims are seen at 558K vs. 573K previously. Also released the Philly Fed in December seen at -40.
- The Euro (EUR) rallied for the fifth day accelerating to the biggest intraday gain in the EURO’s history. Eurozone CPI was confirmed at -0.5% in November. Gains were broad based with the EUR/GBP scaling a new high of 0.9327. Large Resistance on the major is not seen until 1.4500, with some seeing the pair towards 1.5000 giving the speed of the last week’s moves. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4010 and a high of 1.4437 before closing the day at 1.4400. Looking ahead, December German IFO seen at 84 vs. 85.8 previously. The October Trade Balance is expected at -4.5Bn vs. -5.6Bn previously.
- The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to plumb new 13 year lows on the USD/JPY as the USD found no friends and repatriation flows back to Japan maintained there steady demand. Talk of intervention being very close was played down by Ministry on Finance as demands from exporters grow louder. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 87.15 and a high of 89.21 before closing the day around 87.30 in the New York session.
- The Sterling (GBP) market reacted to the very bad data released by aggressively selling the pound against all currencies. The October Unemployment increased to 6.0% and the Claimant Count shot to 76K in November. The Bank of England minutes showed a unanimous decision 9-0 for the 100 bps cut but also that the committee was considering a larger cut. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.5247 and a high of 1.5720 before closing the day at 1.5500 in the New York session. Looking ahead, November retail Sales are forecast to drop -0.6% vs. -0.1% previously.
- The Australian Dollar (AUD) was repelled from the 0.7000 level on the first attempt but broke through later in the day as EUR/USD surged higher. The market is turning bullish on the Aussie as stock volatility decreases and the Interest rates in Australia remain relatively high. Dragging on sentiment was the continued expectation of weaker commodity demand going forward. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6863 and a high of 0.7079 before closing the US session at 0.7050.
- Gold (XAU) grinded higher as the Dollar weakened but was unable to take full advantage as very weak Oil dragged metals down. Overall trading with a low of USD$846.85 and high of USD$882 before ending the New York session at USD$865 an ounce.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
| EUR/USD |
1.3630 |
1.3995 |
1.4405 |
1.4438 |
1.4622 |
| USD/JPY |
86.14 |
87.15 |
87.35 |
90.74 |
91.98 |
| GBP/USD |
1.4900 |
1.5204 |
1.5500 |
1.5724 |
1.6000 |
| AUD/USD |
0.6490 |
0.6666 |
0.7055 |
0.7064 |
0.7238 |
| XAU/USD |
802.00 |
830.00 |
865.00 |
881.00 |
900.00 |
- Euro – 1.4405
Initial support at 1.3995 (Dec 17 low) followed by 1.3630 (Dec 12 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4438 (Dec 17 high) at followed by 1.4622 (0.618 of 1.6038-1.2330) - Yen – 87.35
Initial support is located at 87.15 (Dec 17 low) followed by 86.14 (Range Projection). Initial resistance is now at 89.22 (Dec 17 high) followed by 90.74 (Dec 16 high). - Pound – 1.5500
Initial support at 1.5204 (Dec 15 low) followed by 1.4900 (Dec 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5724 (Dec 17 high) followed by 1.6000 (Psychological level). - Australian Dollar – 0.7055
Initial support at 0.6666 (Dec 16 low) followed by the 0.6490 (Dec 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7064 (Dec 17 high) followed by 0.7238 (Oct 14 high). - Gold – 865
Initial support at 830 (Nov 25 low) followed by 802 (Dec 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 881 (Dec 17 high) followed by 900 (Key Psychological round number).
