Greece Debt Worries remain in Focus
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –19th January (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) weakened gently in quiet markets as US Bank Holiday kept trading thin. Stock markets came off lows in Asia and rallied in Europe to help risk appetite improve. Attention this week will be on Q4 Chinese GDP and US Corporate earnings. Looking ahead, November TIC flows previously at 20bn.
The Euro (EUR) came under pressure at the open as stories over the weekend focused the markets attention towards the ongoing debt crisis in Greece. A scheduled meeting of Eurozone ministers on Monday to discuss the proposed Greece budget will provide more information. Stable equity markets allowed the Euro to rebound to 1.4400 during the day. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4333 and a high of 1.4401 before closing at 1.4385. Looking ahead, German January ZEW survey forecast at 49.5 vs. 50.4 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) held in a contained range against the Dollar but most crosses did rally off Asian lows led by a failed Y130 test on the EUR/JPY. AUD/JPY rebounded from fresh 2 week lows to regain the Y84 level. November Industrial Output was revised to 2.2% vs. 2.6% previously. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.61 and a high of 91.08 before closing the day around 90.75 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) some heavy EUR/GBP selling helped Cable to test fresh month highs above 1.6350. EUR/GBP broke below the 0.8800 level for the first time in 4 months as Greece concerns weighed and speculation mounted the BOE asset purchase plan was nearing completion. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6249 and a high of 1.6382 before closing the day at 1.6335 in the New York session. Looking ahead, December CPI is forecast at 2.6% vs. 1.9% y/y. December RPI is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.3% previously.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell in Sympathy with the Euro before leading the rebound for the rest of the day on improving risk appetite and strong Oil and Gold. EUR/AUD was in place as the multi year 1.55 support was test and held throughout the day. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9173 and a high of 0.9282 before closing the US session at 0.9265.
Oil & Gold (XAU) traded quietly but was supported above the $1130 level. Overall trading with a low of USD$1128 and high of USD$1138 before ending the New York session at USD$1133 an ounce. Made small gains after testing below $78 a barrel. Crude Oil was down +$0.25 ending the New York session at $78.25.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4258 |
1.4303 |
1.4385 |
1.4512 |
1.4579 |
|
USD/JPY |
90.16 |
90.60 |
90.80 |
91.32 |
92.05 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.6137 |
1.6211 |
1.6340 |
1.6411 |
1.6477 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9124 |
0.9171 |
0.9260 |
0.9328 |
0.9406 |
|
XAU/USD |
1115.00 |
1127 |
1134.00 |
1146 |
1161.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
77.00 |
78.00 |
78.25 |
80.00 |
82.00 |
Euro – 1.4385
Initial support at 1.4303 (0.764 of 1.4218-1.4579) followed by 1.4258 (Jan 4 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4512 (Jan 15 high) followed by 1.4579 (Dec 16 high)
Yen – 90.80
Initial support is located at 90.60 (Jan 15 low) followed by 90.16 (Dec 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.32 (Jan 15 high) followed by 92.05 (Jan 14 high).
Pound – 1.6340
Initial support at 1.6211 (Jan 15 low) followed by 1.6137 (Jan 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6411 (Dec 16 high) followed by 1.6477 (Dec 8 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.9260
Initial support at 0.9171 (Jan 12 low) followed by the 0.9124 (Jan 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9328 (Jan 14 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 16 high).
Gold – 1134
Initial support at 1127 (Jan 15 low) followed by 1115 (Jan 5 low). Initial resistance is now at 1146 (Jan 14 high) followed by 1161 (Jan 11 high).
Oil – 78.25
Initial support at 78.00 (Intraday support) followed by 77.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 80.00 (Intraday Resistance) followed by 82.00 (Intraday Resistance).
