Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 19/02/2008

US Markets close for president holiday. RBA expected to be hawkish signaling further rate hikes.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 19 FEBRUARY 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was a quiet session of trade as markets in the US were closed on the back of President’s Day Holiday, as bearish sentiment followed through from Friday’s poor data readings. Market is expected to resume on Tuesday although the only event worthy of noting would be Fed Official Stern speaking on the state of the US economy.

·The Euro (EUR) gave up some of its late rally seen last week on the back of poor data. With the absence of data coupled with US holidays, the Euro held broadly in a range trading technically for much the day. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4611 and a high of 1.4689 before closing the day at 1.4655.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) demand for services saw its largest drop in three months with Tertiary Index fell by -0.6% from the previous month. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.76 and a high of 108.09 before closing the day at 107.65.

·The Sterling (GBP) continued its decline versus the dollar, further tumbling on news that that the U.K. government plans to nationalize troubled U.K. financial institution Northern Rock Plc. Traders pushed the pair lower on concerns that other U.K. financial institution might have significant exposure to asset-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9477 and a high of 1.9522 before closing the day at 1.9603.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to find support on the back of higher commodity prices. The Aussie dollar broke through key 91 cent level during the Asian session of trade as Platinum reached an all time high, further boosted by the RBA minutes scheduled for release on Tuesday morning. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.9071 and a high of 0.9140 before closing the day at 0.9126. As stated, further detail on the Reserve Bank of Australia future outlooks will be revealed on Tuesday, with emphasis placed on mention of the upside risk to inflation balanced with the slowing global growth.

·Gold (XAU) once gain held in tight range. XAU traded with a low of 900.90 and a high of 909.25

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.4650

Initial support at 1.4549 (Feb 14 low) followed by 1.4496 (Feb 12 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4709 (Feb 15 low) followed by 1.4759 (61.8% retracement of the 1.4956 to 1.4440 decline).

·Yen – 108.20

Initial support is located at 107.27 (Feb 15 low) followed by 106.35 (Feb 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 108.67 (38.2% retracement of the 114.66 to 104.97 decline) followed by 109.82 (50% retracement of the 114.66 to 104.97 decline)

·Pound – 1.9510

Initial support at 1.9444 (Feb 12 low) followed by 1.9389 (Feb 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9738 (Feb 14 high) followed by 1.9763 (Feb 5 high)

·Australian Dollar – 0.9165

Initial support a 0.9005 (Feb 15 low) followed by 0.8954 (Feb 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9191 (76.4% retracement of 0.9400 to 0.8513) followed by 0.9321 (Nov 9 high)

·Gold – 906.40

Initial support at 896.50 (Feb 13 low) followed by 885.0 (Feb 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 927.31 (Feb 11 high) followed by 936.80 (Feb 1 trend high)