Global Stocks Remain Under Pressure
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 19th February 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) maintained strength as risk aversion remained high and Economic data continued to weaken. January Industrial Output dropped -1.8% vs. -1.5%. Also released the FOMC minutes which downgraded the 2009 GDP growth forecast to -1.3% vs. -0.2%. The big news in the market was the further slump in January Housing starts which fell to .466Mln vs. .537mn previously. Crude Oil closed down $0.31 ending the New York session at $34.62 per barrel. In the US share markets, the Nasdaq was down -0.18% or -2 points whilst the Dow Jones gained 0.04% or 3 points. Looking ahead, Continuing Jobless Claims are forecast at 4.86Mln vs. 4.81Mln previously. January PPI forecast at 0.1% vs. 0.2% previously.
·The Euro (EUR) continued to test the 1.2500 level but the lack of fresh news helped that support to hold firm and range trading emerged. EUR/JPY defied the trend and broke higher with the big move seen on the USD/JPY. How the emerging Eastern European Banking crisis plays out will direct the Euro in the short term. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2515 and a high of 1.2640 before closing the day at 1.2580.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) defied risk aversion for the 3rd day and broke higher above 93 on the USD/JPY. The market has turned bearish on the Yen in recent trading sessions with Government instability and worsening economic outlook weighing. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 92.11 and a high of 93.95 before closing the day around 93.75 in the New York session. Looking ahead, BoJ meets today.
·The Sterling (GBP) maintained a slightly bullish tone with the market once again buying the dip towards 1.41. February CBI Orders weakened to -56 vs. -45 forecast. Also released the MPC minutes showed a 8-1 vote for the rate cut with Blanchflower calling for a bigger cut. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4095 and a high of 1.4298 before closing the day at 1.4280 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) Held at noted support around 0.6350 with the pair finding strength in the large increase in gold and heavy AUD/JPY buying that emerged in the US session. Q4 retail sales were worse than expected at 0.8% vs. 1.0%. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6340 and a high of 0.6432 before closing the US session at 0.6390.
·Gold (XAU) continued to march higher breaking reistance above $980 and is within striking distance of the $1000 an ounce barrier. Overall trading with a low of USD$961 and high of USD$987 before ending the New York session at USD$983 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2389 |
1.2423 |
1.2560 |
1.2640 |
1.2805 |
|
USD/JPY |
91.59 |
92.09 |
93.65 |
93.96 |
94.14 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3929 |
1.4052 |
1.4230 |
1.4312 |
1.4471 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6077 |
0.6249 |
0.6385 |
0.6432 |
0.6532 |
|
XAU/USD |
940.75 |
961.50 |
983.00 |
986.45 |
988.00 |
·Euro – 1.2560
Initial support at 1.2423 (Nov 21 low) followed by 1.2389 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2640 (Feb 18 low) at followed by 1.2805 (Feb 17 high)
·Yen – 93.65
Initial support is located at 92.09 (Feb 18 low) followed by 91.56 (Feb 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 93.96 (Feb 18 high) followed by 94.14 (Jan 7 high).
·Pound – 1.4052
Initial support at 1.4052 (Feb 2 low) followed by 1.3929 (Jan 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4312 (Feb 17 high) followed by 1.4471 (Feb 16 High).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6385
Initial support at 0.6249 (Feb 2 low) followed by the 0.6077 (Nov 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6432 (Feb 18 high) followed by 0.6532 (Feb 17 high).
·Gold – 983
Initial support at 961.50 (Feb 13 low) followed by 940 (Feb 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 986 (Feb 15 high) followed by 988 (July 15 high).
