Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 19/06/2008

US dollar down as credit crisis hits regional banks.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 19th June 2008 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) with little economic data out yesterday markets were driven by equities and commodities. US stocks were down again as focus switched to the regional banking troubles hit by mortgage delinquencies. The Dow Jones touched below 12000 for the first time in 3 months. US crude inventories showed a decline of 1.2 million barrels and combined with dollar weakness sent oil higher again. In the US share markets, the NASDAQ was down 28 points (1.14%) and the Dow Jones was down 131 points (1.08%). Crude Oil closed up $2.29 ending the New York session at $136.20 per barrel. Looking ahead, weekly jobless claims forecasted at 375K. June Philly Fed is also released expected rebound from May’s -15 to -10 this month.

·The Euro (EUR) continued to pivot the 1.5500 level as new a direction waits to be established. The Euro bounced off day lows as Oil popped higher. Further gains were tempered by newly elected Italian Prime Minister Berlusconi comment “It is unfortunate that the ECB has done nothing to stop hyperinflation of Euro”. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5463 and a high of 1.5538 before closing the day at 1.5528 in the New York session.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) stock market weakness failed to provide support as continued high Oil and yield differentials weighed. EUR/JPY made new multi-month highs briefly trading above 168. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.72 and a high of 108.44 before closing the day around 107.85 in the New York session. BoJ Governor Shirakawa is scheduled to speak.

·The Sterling (GBP) continued to trade heavy as the BoE minutes came in 8-1 with the lone dissenter pressing for a rate cut. The Cable was lifted off lows from a higher than expected CBI Industrial Trends Orders came in stronger at +1 vs. market expectations of -12. Late day USD weakness also provided support. Governor King commented that Q2 is expected to slow considerably, further delaying any rate rises. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9480 and a high of 1.9610 before closing the day at 1.9597 in the New York session. Looking ahead, May Retail Sales expected to come in at -0.1% up from last months -0.2%.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) was helped to day highs as commodities bounced on general USD weakness. AUS/JPY made new multi month highs above 102. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of .9403 and a high .9472 before closing the day at .9469.

·Gold (XAU) bounced as oil and risk sentiment started to creep into the market. Questions about the US Fed’s willingness to raise rates have improved Gold’s position as an inflation hedge. Overall trading with a low of USD$880.80 and high of USD$895.60 ending the New York session at USD$894 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.5575

Initial support at 1.5461 (June 17 low) followed by 1.5303 (June 13 low). Initial resistance is now located 1.5552 (Jun 17 High) at followed by 1.5587 (Jun 12 high).

·Yen – 107.65

Initial support is located at 106.8 (June 12 low) followed by 106.24 (Jun 10 low). Initial resistance is now at 108.61 (Feb 14 high) followed by 108.98 (Jan 14 high).

·Pound – 1.9600

Initial support at 1.9472 (June 17 low) followed by 1.9410 (Jun 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9612 (Jun 18 high) followed by 1.9698 (June 10 high)

·Australian Dollar – 0.9455

Initial support at 0.9304 (50% retracement of the .8953 to 0.9655 advance) followed by 0.9291 (May 15 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9491 (Jun 12 high) followed by 0.9527 (Jun 10 high).

·Gold – 894

Initial support at 858 (Jun 12 low) followed by 850 (Psychological Number). Initial resistance is now at 895.7 (June 16 high) followed by 900 (round number).