Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 19/10/2006

Another session of mixed data from the US. Rumours of carry trade activity being monitored by the BoJ. Commodities weaken.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –19 OCTOBER 06 (01:30GMT)

• U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) recovered somewhat against the majors in the overnight foreign exchange trading session as US CPI disappointed but housing starts surprised the markets. US headline/core CPI came in at -0.5%/0.2%, compared to an estimated -0.3%/0.2% respectively. US housing starts rose to 1.772mln from an estimated 1.64mln. In other markets, the Dow Jones index rose by 43pts while the NASDAQ eased 8pts as the DJIA moved above 12,000 for the first time in history. Crude oil fell by US$1.28 to US$57.65 a barrel as US inventory reports suggested an increase in stocks over the past week. Looking ahead, initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey are due out tonight.
  

• The Euro (EUR) traded within a low of 1.2504 and a high of 1.2556, before closing at 1.2533 in the New York session.
  

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded within a low of 118.35 and a high of 119.15 versus the dollar, before closing at 118.91 in the New York session. On the data front, the business publication Nihon Keizai commented that the Bank of Japan would be monitoring carry trades.
  

• The Sterling (GBP) traded within a low of 1.8666 and a high of 1.8738, before closing at 1.8673 in the New York session. On the data front, UK unemployment came in on expectations at 5.5%. The Bank of England minutes from its October 4-5 meeting showed a 7-2 vote in favour of keeping rates unchanged. Looking ahead, retail sales are due out today.
  

• The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded within a low of 0.7525 and a high of 0.7554, before closing at 0.7545 in the New York session.
  

• Gold (XAU) fell by US90c to US$592.60 an ounce following crude oil and its drop overnight.