Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 19/11/2006

December 19, 2006

Dollar mixed against majors as current account widens. Oil and gold both fall. Market awaits BoJ interest rate decision.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –19 DECEMBER 06 (23:30GMT)

  • U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was relatively steady, if not, slightly stronger against the majors in the overnight foreign exchange trading session as the US current account widened as expected. Current account posted a deficit of US$225bln for the third quarter, up from a deficit of US$217bln in the second quarter. In other markets, the Dow Jones index dropped 4pts and the NASDAQ gave up 21pts as concerns of the housing sector played on the minds of investors with housing starts due out tonight. Crude oil fell by US$1.23 a barrel to US$62.20 a barrel as milder weather has reduced demand for heating oil in the US. Looking ahead, PPI and housing starts are due out tonight.

  • The Euro (EUR) traded within a low of 1.3053 and a high of 1.3117, before closing at 1.3096 in the New York session. On the data front, Eurozone trade balance came in at 2.4bln euros compared to a 1.7bln Euro estimate.

  • The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded within a low of 117.71 and a high of 118.27 versus the dollar, before closing at 118.11 in the New York session. Looking ahead, the BoJ announce their interest rate decision today.

  • The Sterling (GBP) traded within a low of 1.9435 and a high of 1.9679, before closing at 1.9489 in the New York session.

  • The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded within a low of 0.7784 and a high of 0.7835, before closing at 0.7805 in the New York session.

  • Gold (XAU) fell by US20C to US$618.80 an ounce with a stronger greenback and weaker oil price weighing on the precious metal.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.3030 1.3052 1.3100 1.3187 1.3254
USD/JPY 116.65 117.26 118.15 118.61 119.67
GBP/USD 1.9342 1.9434 1.9480 1.9666 1.9730
AUD/USD 0.7769 0.7774 0.7805 0.7850 0.7897
XAU/USD 602.40 612.07 615.00 629.10 638.10

  • Euro 1.3100

Initial support at 1.3052 (Dec 18 low) followed by 1.303 (38.2% retracement of the 1.2483 to 1.3368 advance). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3187 (Dec 15 high) followed by 1.3254 (Dec 14 high).

  • Yen 118.15

Initial support is located at 117.26 (Dec 14 low) followed by 116.65 (Dec 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 118.61 (Nov 9 high &amp 76.4% ret 119.90 to 114.43) followed by 119.67 (Oct 24 corrective high).

  • Pound – 1.9480

Initial support at 1.9434 (Dec 18 low and Nov 29 reaction low) followed by 1.9342 (50% retracement of the 1.8835 to 1.9849 advance). Initial resistance is now at 1.9666 (Dec 15 high) followed by 1.973 (Dec 13 corrective high).

  • Australian Dollar – 0.7805

Initial support at 0.7774 (50% retracement of the 0.7614 to 0.7933 advance) followed by 0.7769 (Former resistance from Nov 1). Initial resistance is now at 0.785 (Dec 15 high) followed by 0.7897 (Dec 13 corrective high).

  • Gold – 615

Initial support at 612.07 (Dec 18 low) followed by 602.4 (Oct 20 high). Initial resistance is now at 629.1 (Dec 15 high) followed by 638.1 (Dec 8 high).

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