US Stocks lead Rebound
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 20th April (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) started the week in the same fashion as Friday with risk aversion and Safe haven buying help the USD against all majors except the Yen. The situation changed at the beginning of the US session with strong Citibank earning helping banks lift and a report that the SEC decision to prosecute Goldman Sachs was split 3-2 down party lines. In US stocks, DJIA -73 points closing at 11092, S& P +5 points closing at 1197 and NASDAQ -1 points closing at 2480. Looking ahead, Fed Chairman Bernanke testimony continues.
The Euro (EUR) plowed new 2 week lows towards 1.3420 before finding support and reversing direction on improving risk environment later in the day and strong EUR/JPY buying off multi week lows at Y123.20. The EU/IMF Greece meeting in Athens was delayed from the Icelandic Volcanic Ash crisis and is now set to begin later in the week. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3415 and a high of 1.3495 before closing at 1.3490. Looking ahead, March PPI is forecast at 0.4% vs. 0% previously. Also released, April ZEW survey forecast at 45.1 vs. 44.5 previously.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was similar to the USD in that is gained in Asia as the Nikkei and Chinese stock markets came under heavy selling pressure before strong US earning saw risk appetite reemerge and large Yen cross buying off lows. GBP/JPY was especially buoyant up over 2 Yen from lows. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.57 and a high of 92.55 before closing the day around 92.40 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) Fresh polls suggesting a hung parliament saw the Pound open lower across the board and the selling continued into Europe with support not seen until Cable broke below 1.5200. The rebound was aggressive and saw the Pound finished up on the day. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.5189 and a high of 1.5345 before closing the day at 1.5330 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March CPI is forecast at 0.3% vs. 0.4% and March RPI is forecast at 0.4% vs. 0.6%.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) broke through 0.9200 support in Asia as risk aversion intensified and AUD/JPY liquidation saw the cross push through Y84 for fresh month lows. The rebound was sparked by Oil and Gold moving higher in the US session and the pair finished the day roughly where it closed on Friday. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9156 and a high of 0.9267 before closing the US session at 0.9250. Looking ahead, April RBA minutes.
Oil & Gold (XAU) The slide continued from Friday with heavy selling at the start of Europe pushing the precious metal to low $1120’s before staging a strong rebound. Overall trading with a low of USD$1123 and high of USD$1138 before ending the New York session at USD$1134 an ounce. Crude Oil found support below $81 and recovered some losses in the US session. WTI Oil Closed -$1.79 at $81.45 a barrel.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.3270 |
1.3343 |
1.3485 |
1.3692 |
1.3816 |
|
USD/JPY |
90.66 |
91.46 |
92.45 |
93.77 |
94.27 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.5044 |
1.5130 |
1.5335 |
1.5363 |
1.5522 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9035 |
0.9131 |
0.9250 |
0.9364 |
0.9406 |
|
XAU/USD |
1122.00 |
1123 |
1134.00 |
1164 |
1183.00 |
|
OIL/USD |
80.00 |
82.5 |
83.30 |
85 |
86.00 |
Euro – 1.3485
Initial support at 1.3343 (Apr 9 high) followed by 1.3270 (Mar 25 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3692 (Apr 12 high) followed by 1.3816 (Mar 17 high)
Yen – 92.45
Initial support is located at 91.46 (0.500 of 88.14-94.79) followed by 90.66 (61.8% retracement of 88.13 – 94.77). Initial resistance is now at 93.77 (Apr 9 high) followed by 94.27 (Apr 7 High).
Pound – 1.5335
Initial support at 1.5130 (Apr 6 low) followed by 1.5044 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5363 (Apr 16 low) followed by 1.5522 (Feb 15 low).
Australian Dollar – 0.9250
Initial support at 0.9131 (Mar 31 low) followed by the 0.9035 (Mar 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9364 (Apr 15 high) followed by 0.9406 (Nov 16 high).
Gold – 1134
Initial support at 1123 (Apr 19 low) followed by 1122 (Apr 7 low). Initial resistance is now at 1164 (April 12 high) followed by 1183 (0.764 of 1126.56-1044.85).
Oil – 83.30
Initial support at 82.50 (Intraday Support) followed by 80.00 (Intraday Support). Initial resistance is now at 85.00 (March high) followed by 86.00 (Intraday Resistance).
