Resurgence of Risk
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 21st April (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) traded higher with US stocks tumbling after negative leads from the Asian and European sessions. Relentless USD buying helped the Euro to crack 1.3000 and dragged the Aussie over 2 cents lower to break through 0.7000. US banks led the market down with profit taking on the recent rally turning into a rout. Bank of America fell 20% while Crude was down 9%. Crude Oil closed down $4.45 ending the New York session at $45.88 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 64 points or -3.88% whilst the Dow Jones was down 289 points or 3.56%. Looking ahead, Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks and the Bank of Canada releases Interest Rate Statement.
·The Euro (EUR) broke through 1.300 in Asia after Trichet’s comments of the state of the Eurozone economy left a sour taste and risk aversion prompted heavy EUR/JPY selling. The closer to Quantitative easing and the lack of clarity and solidarity within the ECB is taking a toll on the Euro. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2891 and a high of 1.3070 before closing at 1.2930. Looking ahead, April German Zew Survey forecast at -90 vs. -89.4 previously. Also released, German PPI (Mar) forecast at -0.3% vs. -0.5% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) reclaimed the number one safe haven currency position with USD/JPY easing during the day from above 99 to below 98. The failure to continue gains above 100 and the sharp sell off in equities has cast a heavy shadow on the USD/JPY and most crosses came off hard. CAD/JPY and AUD/JPY were the worst affected with the sharp fall in commodities also weighing on these pairs. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 98.54 and a high of 99.59 before closing the day around 99.40 in the New York session. Looking ahead, March Trade Balance forecast at -5Bn vs. 82.4 previously.
·The Sterling (GBP) fell sharply with the Euro early in Asia as concern of over the weekend about the UK government’s debt position and banking worries weighed heavily. Selling continued into Europe after EUR/GBP broke higher and GBP/JPY selling intensified. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4812 and a high of 1.4504 before closing the day at 1.4535 in the New York session. Looking ahead, CPI (Mar) forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.9% previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) fell sharply all day as multiple key support levels were broken. Opening up above 0.7200 was short lived as Asian stocks immediately turned negative prompting traders to take profits and make fresh shorts. AUD/JPY selling led the way lower with the key 70 Yen level breaking in Europe. The US session offered little help with the crash in Oil prices sending the AUD/USD below 0.7000 for the first time since April 2nd. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6956 and a high of 0.7247 before closing the US session at 0.6965. Looking ahead, RBA minutes from the April meeting.
·Gold (XAU) found support as safe haven demand notched higher and slumping banking stocks increased systemic risk in the economy. Overall trading with a low of USD$865 and high of USD$888 before ending the New York session at USD$884 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2732 |
1.2833 |
1.2925 |
1.3198 |
1.3297 |
|
USD/JPY |
97.23 |
97.66 |
97.95 |
99.76 |
100.43 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4241 |
1.4450 |
1.4540 |
1.4817 |
1.4942 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6857 |
0.6950 |
0.6965 |
0.7034 |
0.7249 |
|
XAU/USD |
843.00 |
852.00 |
884.00 |
893.00 |
909.00 |
·Euro – 1.2925
Initial support at 1.2833 (March 16 low) followed by 1.2732 (Mar 12 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3198 (April 17 high) at followed by 1.3297 (Apr 15 high)
·Yen – 97.95
Initial support is located at 97.66 (Apr 20 low) followed by 97.23 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.76 (Apr 17 high) followed by 100.43 (Apr 14 high).
·Pound – 1.4540
Initial support at 1.4450 (Apr 2 low) followed by 1.4241 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4817 (Apr 20 high) followed by 1.4942 (Apr 17 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6965
Initial support at 0.6950 (Barrier Support) followed by the 0.6857 (Apr 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7034 (Apr 8 low) followed by 0.7249 (Apr 20 high).
·Gold – 884
Initial support at 852 (Jan 23 low) followed by 843 (Jan 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 893 (Apr 16 high) followed by 909 (Apr 3 high).
