Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 21/08/2006

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –21 AUGUST06 (05:00GMT)

• U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was mixed against the majors in the overnight forex trading session as US consumer sentiment disappointed. The sentiment index fell from 84.7 to 78.7 in August below expectations of a modest fall to 83.6. In other markets, the Dow Jones index rose by 46pts while the NASDAQ gained 6pts capping the best week in 3 years for the NASDAQ. Crude oil rose as focus was again on Iran and their nuclear ambitions, with the UN deadline nearing before sanctions are imposed. Crude oil finished up USD$1.03 to USD$71.09 a barrel. Looking ahead, Redbook store sales and the Richmond Fed Survey are due out tomorrow.
  

• The Euro (EUR) traded within a low of 1.2780 and a high of 1.2845, before closing at 1.2820 in the New York session.
  

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded within a low of 115.45 and a high of 116.00 versus the dollar, before closing at 115.80 in the New York session.
  

• The Sterling (GBP) traded within a low of 1.8780 and a high of 1.8860, before closing at 1.8820 in the New York session.
  

• The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded within a low of 0.7560 and a high of 0.7615, before closing at 0.7580 in the New York session.
  
• Gold (XAU) rose by US$1.00 to US$615 an ounce after tight trading with re-focus on Iran and their nuclear ambitions.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

• Euro 1.2835

Initial support at 1.2768 (Aug 16 low) followed by 1.2695 (Aug 15 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2847 (Aug 18 high) followed by 1.2889 (Aug 17 corrective high).

• Yen 115.75

Initial support is located at 115.04 (61.8% retracement of the 113.97 to 116.76 advance) followed by 114.63 (76.4% retracement of the 113.97 to 116.76 advance). Initial resistance is now at 116.19 (Aug 17 high) followed by 116.39 (Aug 16 low).

• Pound – 1.8825

Initial support at 1.8775 (Aug 18 low) followed by 1.8743 (38.2% retracement of the 1.8090 to 1.9146 advance). Initial resistance is now at 1.887 (Aug 18 high) followed by 1.9026 (Aug 16 high).

• Australian Dollar – 0.7590

Initial support at 0.7562 (Aug 17 low) followed by 0.7546 (38.2% retracement of the 0.7269 to 0.7717 advance). Initial resistance is now at 0.7627 (Aug 18 high) followed by 0.7702 (Aug 16 high).

• Gold – 613

Initial support at 609.92 (50% retracement pf the 543.50 to 676.35 advance) followed by 602.99 (Jul 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 619.06 (Aug 18 high) followed by 632.75 (Aug 16 high).