Market Steady into Weekend
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 21st September (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) gained through bouts of profit taking ahead of the weekend although gains were small as US stocks continued to march higher. This week holds major risk events for the Dollar including the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and G20 communique on Friday. Also of note on Friday, the US Treasury Guarantee on money market funds expired. Crude Oil was down -$0.43 closing at $72.04. In US Stocks, DJIA +36 points closing at 9820, S& P +2 points closing at 1068 and NASDAQ +6 points closing at 2132. Looking ahead, Leading indicators forecast at 0.8% vs. 0.6% in August.
The Euro (EUR) pivoted the 1.4700 level with rallies being sold but dips also finding solid support. EUR/JPY buying after a dip into Europe continued to underpin the single currency as did EUR/GBP buying which extended gains into the 0.90’s. July Current Account surprised with a surplus 6.6bn vs. -4.3bn forecast Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4648 and a high of 1.4744 before closing at 1.4710.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was very contained on Friday as the market crept into the weekend. Most of the action was contained to the crosses with buoyant US stocks helping keep the Yen under pressure. The exception was the GBP/JPY which plumbed fresh lows on continued Pound weakness. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 91.04 and a high of 91.54 before closing the day around 91.35 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) the slide continued as rallies were sold into and buyers continued to flee long positions. New weekly lows on the Cable under 1.6300 and continued Cross weakness are weighing on the outlook. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6232 and a high of 1.6453 before closing the day at 1.6282 in the New York session. UPDATE UK RIGHTMOVE September House Price Index +0.6% m/m.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) tracked the Euro falling on profit taking back to 0.8650 supports before bouncing hard with US stocks. Gold came under pressure due to an IMF report about selling some of its reserves. AUD/JPY remained under 80 Yen with stops remaining in play for the time being. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8654 and a high of 0.8725 before closing the US session at 0.8680.
Gold (XAU) shrugged off a IMF report about potential Gold Sales to rally into the US session but this rally was sold aggressively to under $1010 an ounce late in the US session. Overall trading with a low of USD$1006 and high of USD$1018 before ending the New York session at USD$1007 an ounce.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4467 |
1.4516 |
1.4710 |
1.4768 |
1.4866 |
|
USD/JPY |
89.71 |
90.00 |
91.50 |
91.64 |
92.60 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.6114 |
1.6237 |
1.6250 |
1.6568 |
1.6742 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8529 |
0.8625 |
0.8675 |
0.8814 |
0.8943 |
|
XAU/USD |
982.00 |
992.00 |
1004.00 |
1032.00 |
1050.00 |
Euro – 1.4710
Initial support at 1.4516 (Sept 14 low) followed by 1.4467 (Sept 9 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4768 (Sept 17 high) followed by 1.4866 (Sept 22 2008 high)
Yen – 91.50
Initial support is located at 90.00 (Big Figure) followed by 89.71 (February 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 91.64 (Sept 15 high) followed by 92.60 (Sept 9 high).
Pound – 1.6250
Initial support at 1.6237 (Sept 3 low) followed by 1.6114 (Sept 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6742 (Sept 11 high) followed by 1.6831 (Aug 7 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8675
Initial support at 0.8529 (Sept 8 low) followed by the 0.8383 (61.8% retrace 0..9850-0.6009). Initial resistance is now at 0.8813 (Aug 22 2008 high) followed by 0.8943 (76.4% retrace 0.9850-0.6009).
Gold – 1004
Initial support at 992 (Sept 15 low) followed by 982 (Sept 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 1032 (Mar 17′ 2008 high) followed by 1050 (Psychological Figure).
