Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 21/11/2006

US dollar gains on the majors. US leading indicator rises. Gold and oil tightly range-bound

traded.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –21 NOVEMBER 06 (23:30GMT)

• U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) pegged back some losses against the majors in the overnight forex session as the US leading index came in better than expected. The US leading index rose by 0.2% in October after a revised 0.4% increase in September. In other markets, the Dow Jones index dropped 26pts and the NASDAQ climbed 6pts as the NASDAQ made a bid for the London Stock Exchange as well as other possible big acquisitions. Crude oil fell by US19c to US$58.78 a barrel as there is still indecision as to whether OPEC will cut production again in December.
  

• The Euro (EUR) traded within a low of 1.2809 and a high of 1.2850, before closing at 1.2813 in the New York session.
  

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded within a low of 117.81 and a high of 118.17 versus the dollar, before closing at 118.09 in the New York session. Looking ahead, the minutes of the BoJ meeting are due out today.
  

• The Sterling (GBP) traded within a low of 1.8938 and a high of 1.8986, before closing at 1.8965 in the New York session. On the data front, results showed a GBP8.4bln surplus against the GBP5.0bln forecast.
  

• The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded within a low of 0.7678 and a high of 0.7705, before closing at 0.7700 in the New York session.
  

• Gold (XAU) fell by US40c to US$622.10 an ounce as a stronger dollar and weaker oil hampered moves to the upside in gold.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

• Euro 1.2815

Initial support at 1.2761 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1.2746 (Nov 8 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2901 (Nov 10 high) followed by 1.2941 (Aug 21 reaction high).

• Yen 118.05

Initial support is located at 117.12 (Nov 13 low) followed by 116.57 (Nov 1 low). Initial resistance is now at 118.61 (Nov 9 corrective high) followed by 119.67 (Oct 24 high).

• Pound – 1.8970

Initial support at 1.8835 (Nov 17 low) followed by 1.877 (61.8% retracement of the 1.8516-1.9182 rally). Initial resistance is now at 1.8987 (Nov 20 high) followed by 1.9052 (Nov 14 high).

• Australian Dollar – 0.7700

Initial support at 0.7642 (Nov 16 low) followed by 0.7614 (Nov 13 corrective low). Initial resistance is now at 0.771 (Nov 9 high &amp 61.8% ret 0.7769 to 0.7614) followed by 0.7769 (Nov 1 high).

• Gold – 623

Initial support at 614.8 (Nov 17 low) followed by 613.4 (Nov 8 low). Initial resistance is now at 628.4 (Nov 16 high) followed by 636.9 (Nov 10 high).