Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 21/11/2007

FOMC minutes confirms a “close call” and a projected slow down in economic growth for 2008

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –21 NOVEMBER 2007 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) eased against a basket of majors and traded at a record low versus the Euro and Swiss Franc on concerns that ongoing credit losses may prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates again this year. Surprisingly the FOMC minutes of the October 31 meeting was contradictory to the view describing the most recent rate cut a “close call” whilst the reduction had provided assurance against “an unexpectedly severe weakening in economic activity”. Yet the minutes did confirm that GDP for 2008 was expected to slow. In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ was down +3.43 (0.13%) Dow Jones 51.70 (0.4%). Crude oil prices finished the session up by US$0.44 a barrel to US$98.47

·The Euro (EUR) traded at a fresh record high as speculators began pricing in further rate hikes out of the U.S., and a relatively dovish publication of the FOMC minutes. Overall the EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4636 and a high of 1.4795 and a high of 1.4787 in the New York session.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) suffered on rebounding stock prices having earlier been relieved by risk aversion on the back of US slowdown concerns. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 109.62 and a high of 110.57 before closing the session at 110.22 in the New York session, Trade Balance for the month of October came in at 1018.60 bln (Forecast: 1052.20 Bln, Previous: 1637.8 Bln)

·The Sterling (GBP) rallied on the back of the FOMC minutes, although restricted heading into Wednesday major release of the BoE minutes. Overall the GBPUSD traded with a low of 2.0457 and a high of 2.0662 before closing the day at 2.0643 in the New York session. The BoE minutes will be published today, expecting the last meeting to confirm a 6 to 3 vote for rates being kept on hold.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) was choppy throughout the day, pressured during the Asian session on risk aversion, before trading at day highs in the early part of the European session. However the AUD was unable to sustain much of its gains with views that the US economic growth was to slow in 2008 causing market uncertainty. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 0.8761 and a high of 0.8917 before closing the day at 0.8903 in the New York session.

·Gold (XAU) traded higher on the back of demand in oil prices. XAU traded with a low of 773.20 and a high of 779.45

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.4830

Initial support at 1.4582 (Nov 16 low) followed by 1.4521 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4854 (Nov 20 high) followed by 1.4858 (1.4518 plus 1.4010 – 1.4350).

·Yen – 109.75

Initial support is located at 109.13 (Nov 12 low) followed by 108.99 (May 17, 2006 reaction low). Initial resistance is now at 111.76 (Nov 14 high) followed by 112.88 (Nov 8 high)

·Pound – 2.0665

Initial support at 2.0354 (Nov 16 low) followed by 2.0243 (Oct 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 2.0700 (Round Number Resistance) followed by 2.0846 (Nov 14 high)

·Australian Dollar – 0.8890

Initial support a 0.8760 (Nov 20 low) followed by 0.8754 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8997 (Nov 19 high) followed by 0.9073 (Nov 14 high)

·Gold – 777.20

Initial support at 775.40 (Nov 19 low) followed by 771.50 (Oct 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 818.30 (Nov 15 high) followed by 845.80 (Nov 7 trend high)