Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 21/12/2006

Dollar recoups losses against majors in thin trading and light volumes. Oil grinds up. Market awaits US GDP and Philly Fed survey.

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –21 DECEMBER 06 (23:30GMT)

• U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) strengthened against the majors in the overnight foreign exchange trading session as the absence of any economic data, and winding down of markets ahead of holidays, meant currencies traded on thin volumes not representing underlying economic fundamentals. In other markets, the Dow Jones index fell by 7pts and the NASDAQ dipped 1 point as markets await data released tonight. Crude oil rose US26c to US$63.72 a barrel as oil ministers whom are members of the OPEC cartel talked of impending production cuts. Looking ahead, GDP and the Philly Fed survey are due out tonight.

• The Euro (EUR) traded within a low of 1.3161 and a high of 1.3244, before closing at 1.3177 in the New York session. Looking ahead, the ECB meet but not to discuss interest rates.

• The Japanese Yen (JPY) traded within a low of 117.97 and a high of 118.46 versus the dollar, before closing at 118.35 in the New York session. On the data front, trade balance came in at 915.9bln yen compared to 611.3bln yen estimate Looking ahead, BoJ minutes for Nov 16^th meeting is due out tomorrow.

• The Sterling (GBP) traded within a low of 1.9622 and a high of 1.9747, before closing at 1.9644 in the New York session. On the data front, the BoE MPC minutes showed that all nine members agreed to keeping rates steady. Looking ahead, UK GDP is due out today.

• The Australian Dollar (AUD) traded within a low of 0.7825 and a high of 0.7879, before closing at 0.7854 in the New York session.

• Gold (XAU) fell by US50c to US$623.80 an ounce in relatively light trading.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

• Euro 1.3180

Initial support at 1.3052 (Dec 18 low) followed by 1.303 (38.2% retracement of the 1.2483 to 1.3368 advance). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3247 (61.8% retracement of the 1.3368 to 1.3052 decline) followed by 1.3293 (Dec 12 high &amp 76.4% ret 1.3368 to 1.3052 decline).

• Yen 118.40

Initial support is located at 117.26 (Dec 14 low) followed by 116.65 (Dec 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 118.61 (Nov 9 high &amp 76.4% ret 119.90 to 114.43) followed by 119.67 (Oct 24 corrective high).

• Pound – 1.9660

Initial support at 1.9434 (Dec 18 low and Nov 29 reaction low) followed by 1.9342 (50% retracement of the 1.8835 to 1.9849 advance). Initial resistance is now at 1.9849 (Dec 1 trend high) followed by 1.99 (Psychological round number resistance).

• Australian Dollar – 0.7860

Initial support at 0.7774 (50% retracement of the 0.7614 to 0.7933 advance) followed by 0.7769 (Former resistance from Nov 1). Initial resistance is now at 0.788 (Dec 19 high) followed by 0.7897 (Dec 13 corrective high).

• Gold – 620

Initial support at 612.07 (Dec 18 low) followed by 602.4 (Oct 20 high). Initial resistance is now at 629.1 (Dec 15 high) followed by 638.1 (Dec 8 high).