Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 22/06/2006

June 22, 2006

MARKET SUMMARY –22JUNE06 (05:00GMT)

  • The Dollar was lower against the major currencies in the overnight session with any chance of a rise in the dollar hampered by comments from ECB president Trichet suggesting that interest rates will have to be pushed higher to fight inflation in the Euro zone and that “we’ll continue to do all that’s necessary to counter inflationary risks and anchor inflationary expectations.” In other markets, the Dow Jones finished stronger by 105pts, while the NASDAQ rose 34pts. Crude oil rose on the back of higher than expected gasoline inventory levels, finishing the session at US$70.33, up US99c a barrel. Looking ahead, durable goods orders are due out tomorrow.

  • The Euro traded in a range of 1.2577 to 1.2677, before closing at 1.2660 in the New York session.

  • The Japanese yen traded in a range of 114.38 to 115.22 versus the dollar, before closing at 114.89 in the New York session. On the data front, the trade balance came in at 383 billion yen right on expectations.

  • The Sterling traded in a range of 1.8410 1.8473, before closing at 1.8460 in the New York session. On the data front, the minutes of the BoE meeting showed a 7-1 consensus amongst members to hold rates steady.

  • The Aussie traded in a range of 0.7380 to 0.7395, before closing at 0.7395 in the New York session.

  • Gold rose by US$10.50 to US$591.00 an ounce following a weaker dollar and strong crude oil price with base metals in general lifting in the overnight session.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
EUR/USD 1.2530 1.2549 1.2665 1.2686 1.2702
USD/JPY 113.56 114.37 114.75 115.78 115.98
GBP/USD 1.8316 1.8368 1.8450 1.8561 1.8579
AUD/USD 0.7313 0.7337 0.7410 0.7450 0.7505

  • Euro 1.2665

Initial support at 1.2549 (June 19 low) followed by 1.2530 (Jun 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2686 (June 9 high) followed by 1.2702 (0.382 retracement of the 1.2980 to 1.2530 decline).

  • Yen 114.75

Initial support is located at 114.37 (June 21 low) followed by 113.56 (Jun 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 115.78 (June 19 high) followed by 115.98 (April 24 high and former gap low).

  • Pound – 1.8450

Initial support at 1.8368 (June 19 low) followed by 1.8316 (Jun 13 corrective low). Initial resistance is now at 1.8561 (Jun 16 high) followed by 1.8579 (Jun 8 high).

  • Aussie – 0.7410

Initial support at 0.7337 (June 21 low) followed by 0.7313 (61.8% retracement of 0.7015 to 0.7795 advance). Initial resistance is now at 0.745 (June 16 high) followed by 0.7505 (June 9 corrective high).

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