Global Stock Rally Stalling
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 23rd April (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a mixed day with heavy data releases in the UK the main highlight. Weak stocks kept the USD/JPY under pressure and the GBP was very weak after the UK budget revised GDP lower and raised concerns about government debt. Crude Oil closed up $0.30 ending the New York session at $48.85 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was up 2 points or 0.14% whilst the Dow Jones was down -82 points or -1.04%. Looking ahead, March Home Sales forecast at 4.7mln vs. 4.72 previously.
·The Euro (EUR) rallied through 1.3000 after the market failed to sustain a break of 1.2900. Heavy EUR/GBP buying supported as did concern about GM’s survival in the US session. EUR/JPY remained buoyant as the major surged but late Dow weakness hurt sentiment. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2887 and a high of 1.3036 before closing at 1.3005. Looking ahead, April PMI services are forecast at 41 vs. 40.9 while the Manufacturing is forecast at 34.5 vs. 33.9 previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) once again at the mercy of the stock market trying to rally in Asia before pulling back in the US session. EUR/JPY led the rebound but GBP/JPY was very heavy to leave the outlook mixed. The IMF report released yesterday painted a bleak picture for both the global and Japanese economies. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.60 and a high of 98.62 before closing the day around 98.05 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) experienced a lot of volatility after a host of GBP data released overnight. Unemployment data was showing some positives with the Claimant count at 73k vs. 120k forecast. The BOE minutes showed a 9-0 vote for the continued use of Quantitative easing to the tune of 75Bn Pounds. Also released, the UK Government Budget which contained downward revisions of the UK GDP to 3.5% in 2009 and induced Fresh Pound weakness. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4400 and a high of 1.4672 before closing the day at 1.4480 in the New York session. Looking ahead, April CBI Orders forecast at -54 vs. -58 previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to bounce off the 0.7000 level to test the 0.7100 level once again but failed to finish on a bullish footing. Weaker equities this week have so far resulted in a much softer mood for the AUD. Lackluster Commodities are also beginning to weigh with much of the AUD hopes relying on China. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7005 and a high of 0.7120 before closing the US session at 0.7060.
·Gold (XAU) found support as the global economic outlook continued to be cloudy. Overall trading with a low of USD$882 and high of USD$894 before ending the New York session at USD$893 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2833 |
1.2886 |
1.3005 |
1.3074 |
1.3198 |
|
USD/JPY |
95.96 |
97.23 |
97.95 |
99.76 |
100.43 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4241 |
1.4498 |
1.4480 |
1.4708 |
1.4817 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6857 |
0.6954 |
0.7055 |
0.7249 |
0.7327 |
|
XAU/USD |
852.00 |
864.00 |
891.00 |
895.00 |
909.00 |
·Euro – 1.3005
Initial support at 1.2886 (Apr 22 low) followed by 1.2833 (Mar 16 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3074 (April 20 high) at followed by 1.3198 (Apr 17 high)
·Yen – 97.95
Initial support is located at 97.23 (Mar 31 high) followed by 95.96 (Mar 30 low). Initial resistance is now at 99.76 (Apr 17 high) followed by 100.43 (Apr 14 high).
·Pound – 1.4480
Initial support at 1.4398 (Apr 22 low) followed by 1.4241 (Mar 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4708 (Apr 21 high) followed by 1.4817 (Apr 20 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.7055
Initial support at 0.7000 (Apr 22 low) followed by the 0.6954 (Apr 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7249 (Apr 20 low) followed by 0.7327 (Apr 13 high).
·Gold – 891
Initial support at 864 (Apr 17 low) followed by 852 (Jan 23 low). Initial resistance is now at 895 (Apr 21 high) followed by 909 (Apr 3 high).
