Dow crash on Missed earnings and Recession Concerns
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 23rd October 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) jumped to 5 year highs on the back of the Euro breaking 1.3000 and GBP crumbling. Huge repatriation of some of the $1 trillion US investors have sent overseas since 2003 helped to boost the USD. Stocks continue to sag though as earning came in relentlessly poor. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down-80 points (-4.77%) and the Dow Jones was down -515 points (-5.69%). Crude Oil closed down $-5.43 ending the New York session at $66.75 per barrel. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims expected at 470K vs. 461K previously.
·The Euro (EUR) broke through 1.3000 during the Asian session as heavy EUR/JPY forced the major through the major support. The pair then quickly plunged a further 250 pips as GBP also broke supports at 1.65 and Nikkei losses mounted leading to a near capitulation on the second reserve currency of the world. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2740 and a high of 1.3077 before closing the day at 1.2850 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Eurozone Current account previously at -1.1Billion. Also release August Industrial Orders expected at 0.3% vs. 1% m/m.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) stronger than even the USD the Yen gains against all pairs during Asia and then again in the US as stock losses mounted. Massive gains against the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY lead the charge. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.23 and a high of 100.57 before closing the day around 97.70 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Japanese Trade Balance seen at 600B Yen and Exports are seen jumping 5.2%.
·The Sterling (GBP) crumbled as the market stepped away from buying as key levels were broken and the market focused on BOE King’s comments that the UK was in recession. The GBP took the title of the worst performing currency. MPC voted 9-0 for the recent 0.5% interest cut. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.6130 and a high of 1.7720 before closing the day at 1.6240 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Retails are expected at -0.9% vs. 1.2%.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) held up remarkably well given the rise in risk aversion and large falls in commodity prices. Q3 CPI was stronger than expected coming in at 5.0% Y/Y well above the RBA target 2-3% band but will not be influencing the Bank stance on future interest rate cuts given the current market turmoil. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6635 and a high of 0.6825 before closing the US session at 0.6750.
·Gold (XAU) crashed through year lows as the USD surged and Oil continued to plumb new lows. Overall trading with a low of USD$721.60 and high of USD$775 before ending the New York session at USD$279 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2683 |
1.2738 |
1.2765 |
1.3078 |
1.3359 |
|
USD/JPY |
95.76 |
96.85 |
97.60 |
100.57 |
102.41 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.6100 |
1.6203 |
1.6225 |
1.6717 |
1.7198 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6496 |
0.6540 |
0.6620 |
0.7076 |
0.7239 |
|
XAU/USD |
700.00 |
721.00 |
725.00 |
736.00 |
775.75 |
·Euro – 1.2765
Initial support at 1.2738 (Oct 22 low) followed by 1.2683 (Nov 3 2006). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3078 (Oct 22 high) at followed by 1.3359 (Oct 21 high).
·Yen – 97.60
Initial support is located at 96.85 (Mar 18 low) followed by 95.76 (Mar 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 100.57 (Oct 22 high) followed by 102.41 (Oct 20 high).
·Pound – 1.6225
Initial support at 1.6203 (Oct 22 low) followed by 1.6100 (Sep 17, 2003 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6717 (Oct 22 low) followed by 1.7168 (Oct 21 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6620
Initial support at 0.6540 (76.4% retrace 0.7239-.6330) followed by the 0.6496 (Oct 16 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7076 (Oct 15 high) followed by 0.7239 (Oct 14 high).
·Gold – 725
Initial support at 721 (Oct 4, 2007 low) followed by 700 (Key Level). Initial resistance is now at 736.8 (Sept 11 low) followed by 775.75 (Oct 22 high).
