CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 24th February 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was sold broadly in Asia and early Europe as the Citigroup/ US government investment story took hold and stocks reversed losses. The rally proved short-lived with US equities reversing early gains and plummeting to new year lows. The Dollar finished very well supported. Crude Oil closed down $1.59 ending the New York session at $38.44 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down -3.7% or -53 points whilst the Dow Jones fell -3.40% or -250 points. Looking ahead, February Consumer Confidence is forecast at 35.5 vs. 37.7.
·The Euro (EUR) managed to rally up to resistance at 1.3000 before Fitch warned on Austria’s outlook and ECB President Trichet spoke of the deterioration of the Eurozone economy. Weak US stocks added to the pressure and the pair finished at supports around 1.2700. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2690 and a high of 1.2991 before closing the day at 1.2700. Looking ahead, December Industrial Orders forecast to fall -5% vs. -4.5% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued with its recent theme of weakness, shrugging off its safe haven status to fall to new multi-month lows just under 95. The crosses took advantage as well but extreme weakness in US stocks saw gains pared back. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 92.78 and a high of 94.94 before closing the day around 94.30 in the New York session. Looking ahead, January BOJ Policy minutes.
·The Sterling (GBP) gained against all currencies with the market beginning to focus on other economies. GBP/JPY soared to 139 and cable surged above 1.4600. EUR/GBP fell below 0.88 on the back of fresh Euro weakness. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4367 and a high of 1.4660 before closing the day at 1.4470 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February CBI distributive trades forecast at -52 vs. -47 previously.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) gained with the Euro in Asia in the back of the Citigroup report but couldn’t sustain these gains with weak commodities and risk aversion weighing into the US close. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6405 and a high of 0.6546 before closing the US session at 0.6420.
·Gold (XAU) weakened with banking risk easing slightly on the back of speculation further government capital is on the way for US banks. Overall trading with a low of USD$976 and high of USD$997 before ending the New York session at USD$990 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2513 |
1.2702 |
1.2705 |
1.2997 |
1.3093 |
|
USD/JPY |
92.09 |
92.52 |
94.40 |
95.61 |
95.95 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.3929 |
1.4153 |
1.4495 |
1.4662 |
1.4780 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6249 |
0.6333 |
0.6415 |
0.6577 |
0.6643 |
|
XAU/USD |
940.75 |
961.50 |
992.00 |
1005.00 |
1012.00 |
·Euro – 1.2705
Initial support at 1.2702 (Feb 23 low) followed by 1.2513 (Feb 18 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2997 (Feb 11 low) at followed by 1.3093 (Feb 9 high)
·Yen – 94.40
Initial support is located at 92.52 (Feb 20 low) followed by 92.09 (Feb 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 95.61 (Dec 1 high) followed by 95.95 (Nov 26 high).
·Pound – 1.4495
Initial support at 1.4153 (Feb 20 low) followed by 1.3929 (Jan 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4662 (Feb 23 high) followed by 1.4780 (Fibonacci retracement).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6415
Initial support at 0.6333 (Feb 18 low) followed by the 0.6249 (Feb 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6577 (Feb 16 high) followed by 0.6643 (Feb 13 high).
·Gold – 992
Initial support at 961.50 (Feb 13 low) followed by 940 (Feb 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 1005 (Feb 20 high) followed by 1012 (Mar 18 high).
