Obama’s New Economic Plan Stokes Rally
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 24th November 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was weakened by a reversal in market mood late on Friday as stocks across the world rallied and investor fears eased. The announcement of Tim Geithner was generally seen as positive by the market. Also helping sentiment was speculation that a new stimulus plan would be in place by the time Obama takes the Presidency. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 68.23 points (5.18%) and the Dow Jones was up 494 points (6.54%). Crude Oil closed up $0.51 ending the New York session at $49.93 per barrel. Looking ahead, October Home Sales are expected at 5.05Mln vs. 5.18Mln previously.
·The Euro (EUR) finished stronger although it was a wild ride as US stocks experienced a rollercoaster session to end much higher. Eurozone Data continued to deteriorate with Manufacturing PMI falling to 36.2 in November vs. 40.5. Services PMI fell to 43.3 vs. 45.0 indicating a sharp slowdown in Economic Activity. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2423 and a high of 1.2625 before closing the day at 1.25 in the New York session. Looking ahead, September Industrial Orders are seen down -3% vs. -1.2% previously. Also released, the German IFO Index for November expected at 81 vs. 81.4 previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) gave up a lot of strength as Asian stocks reversed losses from the dreadful US session on Thursday night and actually turned positive in most of the cases. The mood of the market has been playing a large role in Yen trading lately and AUD/JPY has been seen as a good risk barometer of the market. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 93.67 and a high of 95.98 before closing the day around 95.93 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) Ended up but off its highs as the market sold the pound as US stocks initially weakened before recovering as stocks rallied into the close. Rallies are proving short-lived as the battered currency is still viewed as very weak going forward. Pressure is on the government to provide an economic stimulus package to prop up the economy. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4714 and a high of 1.5060 before closing the day at 1.4869 in the New York session.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) was a heavy gainer after finding a floor in Asia. The AUD grinded higher all day to finish back above 0.6300. Support was seen coming from large gains in AUD/JPY and the major rally seen in gold. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6078 and a high of 0.6302 before closing the US session at 0.6301.
·Gold (XAU) rallied over 5% on the back of physical demand for the precious metal as investors sought the long term safety granted by gold. Overall trading with a low of USD$743.74 and high of USD$802 before ending the New York session at USD$800 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2389 |
1.2425 |
1.2615 |
1.2638 |
1.2814 |
|
USD/JPY |
93.20 |
93.62 |
95.20 |
96.23 |
97.55 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4647 |
1.4713 |
1.4895 |
1.5060 |
1.5249 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6009 |
0.6077 |
0.6260 |
0.6315 |
0.6416 |
|
XAU/USD |
700.00 |
725.40 |
795.00 |
801.00 |
810.00 |
·Euro – 1.2615
Initial support at 1.2425 (Nov 21 low) followed by 1.2389 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2638 (Nov 21 low) at followed by 1.2814 (Nov 19 high)
·Yen – 95.20
Initial support is located at 93.62 (Nov 20 low) followed by 93.20 (Nov 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 96.23 (Nov 20 high) followed by 97.55 (Nov 13 high).
·Pound – 1.4895
Initial support at 1.4713 (Nov 20 low) followed by 1.4647 (Nov 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.5060 (Nov 21 high) followed by 1.5249 (Nov 19).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6260
Initial support at 0.6077 (Nov 20 low) followed by the 0.6009 (Oct 27 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6315 (Nov 21 high) followed by 0.6416 (Nov 20 high).
·Gold – 795
Initial support at 725.40 (Nov 14 low) followed by 700 (Nov 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 801 (Nov 21 high) followed by 810 (Key level).
