Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 24/12/2007

Stable data out of the U.S. boosts dollar. Japanese Market Holiday

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY –24 DECEMBER 2007 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) remained firm versus a number of majors on Friday as consumer spending in the U.S. rose more than forecasted for the month of November. Core PCE figures for the m/m were seen on consensus at 0.2% whilst, whilst the Michigan Survey for the month of was at 75.5 (Dec) higher than the forecasted 76.1, dousing fears that the slowest month of spending had ensured the U.S. was heading into a recession. In other news, reports circulated that a Singapore state capital influx was invested into Meryl Lynch encouraged US stock markets. In U.S. share markets the NASDAQ was higher by 51.13 points (+1.94%) whilst the Dow Jones was also higher by 205.01 points (+1.55%). Crude oil closed higher on Friday gaining by US$2.54 a barrel to 93.60 as demand increased over the Holiday period.

·The Euro (EUR) was range bound, before closing the day lower than the previous session. Overall the Euro eased on diminishing views that the U.S. economy would head into a recession, as the dollar was boosted by sturdy consumption data. In data specific news, the Current Account for the EZ was slightly down on economists forecasts coming in at 1.3 bln (Forecast: 1.4 bln Prior: 1.9R bln) for the month of October, whilst Industrial Orders grew at a pace of 2.5% (Forecast: 2% Prior: -1.6%). The EURUSD traded with a low of 1.4319 and a high of 1.4410 before closing the day at 1.4357 in the New York session.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the most active currency on Friday, following news that Meryl Lynch had received a injection of capital from Singapore, stock markets surged, pushing the Japanese Yen lower across the board, as the market reacted in an expected manner, re-investing in carry trades. The Yen fell to a fourth weekly loss on growing confidence in the market. Overall he USDJPY traded with a low of 112.95 and a high of 114.20 before closing the day at 114.06 in the New York session. Japanese markets will be closed on Monday.

·The Sterling (GBP) tumbled to an all time low versus the Euro on Friday since the currencies inception in 1999, on growing expectations the BoE would be inclined to cut rates further in the New Year. The GBPUSD traded with a low of 1.9812 and a high of 1.9892 before closing the day at 1.9832 in the New York session.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) gained as risky traders re-entered the market in search of the Carry trade. Overall the AUDUSD traded with a low of 1.4319 and a high of 1.4410 in the New York Session.

·Gold (XAU) rallied above 800 on increasing oil prices. XAU traded with a low of 797.20 and a high of 812.40 in the New York session.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

·Euro – 1.4370

Initial support at 1.4317 (Dec 21 low) followed by 1.4307 (1.4751 minus 1.4968 – 1.4528). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4453 (Dec 17 low) followed by 1.4527 (Dec 14 high).

·Yen – 114.00

Initial support is located at 112.75 (Dec 19 low) followed by 112.20 (Dec 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 114.79 (Nov 7 high) followed by 115.42 (76.4% retracement of the 117.95 to 107.23 decline)

·Pound – 1.9840

Initial support at 1.9811 (Dec 20 low) followed by 1.9744 (Aug 21 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9986 (Dec 20 high) followed by 2.0196 (Dec 17 high)

·Australian Dollar – 0.8780

Initial support a 0.8553 (Dec 18 low) followed by 0.8538 (38.2% retracement of the 0.7676 to 0.9400 advance). Initial resistance is now at 0.8688 (38.2% retracement of the 0.8907 to 0.8558 decline) followed by 0.8772 (61.8% retracement of the 0.8907 to 0.8558 decline)

·Gold – 811.30

Initial support at 785.66 (Dec 17 low) followed by 777.20 (Dec 3 low). Initial resistance is now at 806.55 (Dec 18 high) followed by 812.20 (December 13 high)