Australian FOREX Daily Outlook 25/03/2009

Profit taking drags most markets lower

CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 25th March 2009 (00:30GMT)

·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) strengthened as stocks gave up some of the gains seen on Monday and traders took profit on short USD positions. The January Richmond Fed Index improved to -20 vs. -51 previously. Crude Oil closed up $0.18 ending the New York session at $53.98 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 39 points or -2.52% whilst the Dow Jones fell 115 points or -1.49%. Looking ahead, February Durable Good Orders forecast at -2% vs. -4.5% previously. Also released Crude Oil Inventories looking for a 1.2M build.

·The Euro (EUR) couldn’t get back above 1.3700 and fell heavily as the recent rally ran out of steam. Support at 1.3500 failed to hold and the pair slipped to 1.3430. PMI surveys in March showed slight improvement with services ticking higher to 40.1 vs. 39 and manufacturing 34 vs. 33.4 previously. January Current Account Deficit widened to -12.7B vs. -7.6B previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3433 and a high of 1.3677 before closing the day at 1.3480. Looking ahead, German IFO Business Climate is forecast at 82.2 vs. 82.6.

·The Japanese Yen (JPY) had a volatile day as the morning session in Asia saw most crosses testing year highs. Solid USD/JPY buying intensified the move higher in the majors. Most of the crosses fell heavily as the majors pulled back although USD/JPY remained supported. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 97.06 and a high of 98.55 before closing the day around 98.10 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February Trade Balance forecast at -10.9 vs. -952.6 previously.

·The Sterling (GBP) broke above the key 1.4660 level and remained very well supported on comments by BOE King and solid economic data. Inflation surprised to the topside with Core CPI (Feb) rising 0.9% vs. -0.7% previously. Retail Sales (Feb) rose to 0.6% vs. -0.2% forecast. BOE King said there is no reason for the Pound to weaken and that it contributed to a high CPI reading. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4560 and a high of 1.4777 before closing the day at 1.4700 in the New York session. Looking ahead, CBI Distributive Trades are forecast at -35 vs. -25.

·The Australian Dollar (AUD) failed at 0.7100 and fell sharply tracking the Euro lower as US stocks fell. 0.7000 failed to prop and the pair slipped below. Consolidation of the recent move higher is healthy and the pair could still test higher level if stability returns to the markets and commodity prices remain strong. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6936 and a high of 0.7092 before closing the US session at 0.6980. Looking ahead, RBA Governor Stevens Speaks.

·Gold (XAU) dropped off further as speculation the worst is behind us eroded demand for the precious metal. Overall trading with a low of USD$917 and high of USD$943 before ending the New York session at USD$929 an ounce.

·Euro – 1.3475

Initial support at 1.3432 (Mar 24 low) followed by 1.3417 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.3739 (Mar 19 high) at followed by 1.3799 (Jan 8 high)

·Yen – 98.00

Initial support is located at 95.43 (Mar 23 low) followed by 95.67 (Mar 12 low). Initial resistance is now at 98.97 (Mar 17 high) followed by 99.68 (Mar 5 high).

·Pound – 1.4690

Initial support at 1.4395 (Mar 20 low) followed by 1.4160 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4778 (Mar 24 high) followed by 1.4986 (Feb 9 high).

·Australian Dollar – 0.6975

Initial support at 0.6852 (Mar 20 low) followed by the 0.6742 (Mar 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.7142 (Jan 8 high) followed by 0.7268 (Jan 7 high).

·Gold – 929

Initial support at 912 (Fib Retracement) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 967 (Mar 20 high) followed by 978 (Feb 25 high).