Weak data across the Globe, Equities down.
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 25th July 2008 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) had a mixed trading day, initially making impressive gains on the back of weak European data before weak US data also and share losses forced the Dollar to give up most of its gains. Weekly Jobless Claims came in surprisingly high at 406K vs. expectations of 376K. June Home Sales came in at 4.86 Million, lower than the 4.93 forecast down -2.6% from May. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was down 45 points (-1.97%) and the Dow Jones was down 283 points (2.43%). Crude Oil closed up $1.05 ending the New York session at $125.49 per barrel. Looking ahead, June Durable Goods are seen at -0.5%, Final July Michigan Survey at 56.4 and June New Home Sales at 500K.
·The Euro (EUR) came under pressure during the European session as a raft of data disappointed. July Preliminary Services PMI came in at 48.3 and the Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.5. The German IFO Business Climate Index came in below 100 for the first time since 2005 at 97.5. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.5628 and a high of 1.5714 before closing the day at 1.5685 in the New York session. Looking ahead, June Import Prices seen up 1%.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) tracked the equities gaining in strength as risk aversion crept into the market. USD/JPY losses were relatively contained but EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY came off considerably. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 107.19 and a high of 107.99 before closing the day around 107.30 in the New York session.UPDATE June Core CPI 1.9%.
·The Sterling (GBP) fell heavily as UK retail sales hit a record low for June falling 3.9% after rising 3.6% in May. The cable broke out of its recent range, breaking through the downside and giving up most of yesterday’s impressive gains against the EURO and JPY. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.9817 and a high of 1.9990 before closing the day at 1.9865 in the New York session. Looking ahead, Preliminary 2nd GDP q/q seen at 0.2% vs. 0.3% in the 1st.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) was unable to recover as commodities remained weak and risk aversion spiked. AUD/JPY came under a lot of pressure as stocks turned negative. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.9540 and a high of 0.9637 before closing the day at 0.9590.
·Gold (XAU) had a mixed day as USD strength was outweighed by safe haven flows. Overall trading with a low of USD$916.80 and high of USD$930.90 ending the New York session at USD$928 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.5612 |
1.5629 |
1.5680 |
1.5799 |
1.5948 |
|
USD/JPY |
104.76 |
106.06 |
107.30 |
108.19 |
108.59 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.9754 |
1.9815 |
1.9855 |
2.0077 |
2.0157 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.9477 |
0.9540 |
0.9555 |
0.9675 |
0.9794 |
|
XAU/USD |
908.65 |
912.90 |
928.00 |
949.25 |
976.00 |
·Euro – 1.5680
Initial support at 1.5629 (July 24 low) followed by 1.5612 (July 23 low). Initial resistance is now located 1.5799 (July 23 high) at followed by 1.5948 (July 16 High).
·Yen – 107.30
Initial support is located at 106.06 (July 22 low) followed by 104.76 (July 17 low). Initial resistance is now at 108.19 (Jun 26 high) followed by 108.59 (Jun 16 high).
·Pound – 1.9855
Initial support at 1.9815 (July 14 low) followed by 1.9754 (July 11 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.9990 (July 24 high) followed by 2.0077 (July 22 high).
·Australian Dollar – 0.9555
Initial support at 0.9540 (July 24 low) followed by 0.9477 (July 9 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9675 (June 17 low) followed by 0.9794 (July 22 High).
·Gold – 928
Initial support at 912.9 (July 8 low) followed by 908.65 (Jun 19 low). Initial resistance is now at 949.25 (July 23 high) followed by 976 (July 22 high).
