Quiet Monday, Currencies Range-bound
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 25th August (00:30GMT)
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) optimism overflowed into the Asian session and led to continued USD and Yen selling. US stocks were flat with initial optimism being tempered by Suntrust’s CEO commenting on major credit losses still to be faced from the commercial real estate market. Crude Oil Closed up $0.48 at $74.37. In US share markets, S& P ended -1 points (-0.05%) at 1025, NASDAQ ended -2.9 points (-0.14%) at 2017 and DOW JONES ended +3 points (+0.03%) at 9509. Looking ahead, June Case Shiller forecast at 0.2% vs. 0.5% previously. Also released CB consumer confidence is forecast at 47.5 vs. 46.6.
The Euro (EUR) eased to below 1.4300 going into Europe but found support at 1.4280 and pivoted the 1.4300 level for the rest of the day. June Industrial Orders were strong at 3.1% vs. 1.5% forecast. EUR/JPY tested 136 Yen but slumped back to 135 Yen on profit taking later in the day. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4281 and a high of 1.4360 before closing at 1.4295. Looking ahead, Final Q2 German GDP expected to be confirmed at 0.3%.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) tested the key 95 level with little fireworks or follow through and slumped back to 94.50 supports as the market consolidated Friday’s move higher. Technical’s are mixed and the Japanese Election is keeping things quiet and contained. The correlation with stock markets is still strong and will provide fresh direction for the foreseeable future. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 94.37 and a high of 95.07 before closing the day around 94.50 in the New York session.
The Sterling (GBP) was weaker than most losing ground against 14 of the most actively traded currencies yesterday. EUR/GBP was a source of weakness as the pair pushed above 0.8700. Cable fell from above 1.6500 to test 1.6400 where some buyers were found. Weighing on sentiment, a Time’s article about declines in UK tax revenue greater than government estimates. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.6419 and a high of 1.6625 before closing the day at 1.6510 in the New York session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) was supported from multiple directions as the market looked to take advantage of the currencies under performance last week. The pair pushed above 0.8400 but found going tough and fell back in the US session as frustrated longs grew impatient with the lack of upside action and AUD/JPY failed to break 80 Yen. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8359 and a high of 0.8430 before closing the US session at 0.8370.
Gold (XAU) broke lower unable to sustain the key $950 level with stop losses pushing the pair quickly below $940 an ounce. Overall trading with a low of USD$935 and high of USD$957 before ending the New York session at USD$943 an ounce.
TECHNICAL COMMENTARY
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.4046 |
1.4201 |
1.4290 |
1.4447 |
1.4621 |
|
USD/JPY |
92.72 |
93.10 |
94.40 |
95.29 |
96.73 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.6034 |
1.6276 |
1.6405 |
1.6665 |
1.6719 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.8126 |
0.8216 |
0.8370 |
0.8478 |
0.8519 |
|
XAU/USD |
925.00 |
930.00 |
943.00 |
960.00 |
971.00 |
Euro – 1.4290
Initial support at 1.4201 (AUG 20 low) followed by 1.4046 (AUG 17 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4447 (Aug 5 high) followed by 1.4621 (61.8% retrace 1.6038 -1.2330)
Yen – 94.40
Initial support is located at 93.10 (July 22 low) followed by 92.72 (July 14 low). Initial resistance is now at 95.29 (August 18 high) followed by 96.73 (Aug 12 high).
Pound – 1.6405
Initial support at 1.6276 (Aug 17 low) followed by 1.6034 (Jul 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.6665 (AUG 13 high) followed by 1.6719 (AUG 10 high).
Australian Dollar – 0.8370
Initial support at 0.8216 (AUG 21 low) followed by the 0.8126 (July 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.8478 (Aug 14 high) followed by 0.8519 (Sept 22 high).
Gold – 943
Initial support at 930 (Aug 17 low) followed by 925 (July 29 low). Initial resistance is now at 960 (August 13 high) followed by 971 (Aug 6 high).
