US housing numbers continue to Slide
CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 26th February 2009 (00:30GMT)
·U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) strengthened across the board with the market scaling back risky trades as US stocks fell and Housing data was extremely weak. January Existing Home Sales fell -5.3% vs. a milder -1% drop forecast. Bernanke spoke for a second day and helped to calm the markets angst about banks nationalization. Crude Oil closed up $42.50 ending the New York session at $42.50 per barrel. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 16 points or -1.14% whilst the Dow Jones fell 80 points or -1.09%. Looking ahead, Weekly Jobless Claims are forecast at 628K. Also released, January Core Durable Goods Orders are forecast -2.5% vs. -3% previously. January New Home Sales are forecast at 0.33m vs. 0.331m previously.
·The Euro (EUR) fell after stocks ran out of steam and a slew of new downgrades for Eastern European countries. German GDP Q4 was confirmed at -2.1%. EUR/JPY remained buoyant but couldn’t break 125 Yen. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.2692 and a high of 1.2898 before closing the day at 1.2720. Looking ahead, German Unemployment for February forecast at 7.9% vs. 7.8%. German March GFK Index forecast at 2 vs. 2.2% previously.
·The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued to be very weak with the 97 level offering little resistance as the pair pushed to new 3 month highs. On the Crosses, initial buoyancy was pared back by major weakness with the GBP/JPY especially soft after failing to hold 140. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 96.37 and a high of 97.77 before closing the day around 97.40 in the New York session.
·The Sterling (GBP) fell heavily after the unrevised Q4 GDP at -1.5% sparked speculation of rate cuts and rumors swirled of fresh banking bailouts. EU representatives expressed concern of the pounds weakness especially against the Euro as created an artificial trade advantage. Overall the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.4176 and a high of 1.4605 before closing the day at 1.4210 in the New York session. Looking ahead, February Nationwide House Prices forecast at -1.3%m/m and -17% y/y.
·The Australian Dollar (AUD) held firm above 0.6500 for most of Asia and tested resistance at 0.6550 before fresh USD strength and soft equities combined to ease the pair lower. AUD/JPY underpinned the pair with a bullish break seeing new month highs intraday. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6390 and a high of 0.6537 before closing the US session at 0.6510.
·Gold (XAU) continued to fall as Bernanke’s second day of speeches eased gold demand. Overall trading with a low of USD$944 and high of USD$978 before ending the New York session at USD$952 an ounce.
|
Currency |
Sup 2 |
Sup 1 |
Spot |
Res 1 |
Res 2 |
|
EUR/USD |
1.2558 |
1.2663 |
1.2720 |
1.2997 |
1.3093 |
|
USD/JPY |
92.52 |
94.63 |
97.45 |
97.79 |
98.30 |
|
GBP/USD |
1.4052 |
1.4153 |
1.4210 |
1.4662 |
1.4780 |
|
AUD/USD |
0.6249 |
0.6333 |
0.6465 |
0.6577 |
0.6643 |
|
XAU/USD |
933.00 |
940.00 |
952.00 |
995.00 |
1006.00 |
·Euro – 1.2720
Initial support at 1.2663 (Feb 24 low) followed by 1.2558 (Feb 20 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.2997 (Feb 11 low) at followed by 1.3093 (Feb 9 high)
·Yen – 97.45
Initial support is located at 94.63 (Jan 6 resistance) followed by 92.52 (Feb 20 low). Initial resistance is now at 97.79 (Feb 25 high) followed by 98.30 (Nov 11 high).
·Pound – 1.4210
Initial support at 1.4153 (Feb 20 low) followed by 1.4052 (Feb 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 1.4662 (Feb 23 high) followed by 1.4780 (Fibonacci Retracement).
·Australian Dollar – 0.6465
Initial support at 0.6333 (Feb 18 low) followed by the 0.6249 (Feb 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6577 (Feb 16 high) followed by 0.6643 (Feb 13 high).
·Gold – 952
Initial support at 940 (Feb 17 low) followed by 933 (Feb 13 low). Initial resistance is now at 995 (Feb 24 high) followed by 1006 (Feb 20 high).
